6/15 10:25

A comment was posted with a link to an Elliott Wave analyst named Pater Tenebrarum.  In terms of his short-term wave count:
I agree that apart from NDX the decline appears corrective. That does not mean that this rally will be a 5 up to new highs. Pater, like EWI, has had and still has doubts on how to properly count the 2009-2011 rally (which is not uncommon for corrective waves). If the 8-day lead is intact then I'll use a return below 10.5 on the short-term timing component to know when the rally is kaput.


He also launches a criticism of EWI Grand-Supercycle (GSC) wave count and an opinion on the basis of social mood.  My reaction:
I believe in the concept of the GSC.  According to EWI our current GSC began in 1786.  Watts patented his steam engine in 1775 and it began to be used in manufacturing in 1783.  Bar iron (to replace pig iron) depended on a process patented in 1783.  So the launch of major technologies seems appropriate as the start of wave 1 of GSC degree.
Wave 3 began in 1859 which corresponds with the ascendency of the United States as an industrial power and the application of steel and oil to all aspects of daily life.  This ended in 1929.
Wave 5 began in 1932 and it encompassed electronics but also began the debasement of world finance.  It's fuel was both technological and fiat and the chart is breathtaking.   However, the financial system that it created was increasingly dominated by government and the capital of many generation was gradually depleted.  We are now left with 70 years of Keynesian economics gone wild and desperate actions by political believers are piling absurd leverage onto a debt-based system.  It becomes plain to me that the correction of GSC will destroy the financial system and many of the governments built upon it's fiat promises.

As to the origins of social mood I believe that the mind operates at multiple frequencies simultaneously and that at different times the dominance of these frequencies shifts.  Major technological advances launch people into education, training, and careers that bring different frequencies forward.  That is to say, their world view becomes dominated by these frequencies.  Likewise, people are affected by other external events, some environmental and some political/financial that bring different frequencies forward.  Since the GSC is a sequence from technological to political dominance it is easy to see this in operation.  In the end governments self-destruct and new ones are born.  The GSC downcycle of about 60 years means complex shifts in social mood, appropriate investments, and lifestyle choices during this period.