Wednesday, June 15, 2011

6/15 9:15

I'm operating on the assumption that yesterday's rally reflected the fact that an 8-day lead exists in the short-term timing component of I1.  If this is the case then the stock market is in for a rally that should last longer than a week and yesterday's low should be safe.
The other alternative is that this component now reflects the stock market real-time and the market will continue to make lows.  The 30-minute M/A SP September futures is one test of this hypothesis.  I sold when SP futures hit 1270.50.  If there is a 30-minute close below 1270 then I will buy short ETFs again and look for a re-test of yesterday's low.

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