Friday, June 24, 2011

6/24 noon

Short-term: neutral until Tuesday/Wednesday when I'll short again
Medium: Bottom late August
The broad trading range market continues.  The last thing I want to do is make directional bets in a non-directional market.  The weekly trend is down but that allows for a good upside pop.  Tuesday/Wednesday are when I'll look for a top to short.   Yesterday's market was distorted due to government intervention, but the SPX 200-day was tested and held. 

I1 predicted the beginning of this trading range with an 8-day lead. 


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3 comments:

  1. DanJune 24, 2011 at 9:46 AM

    Steve,

    Any chance the lead does not exist anymore? If so, what does that mean in terms of I1 bottoming soon rather than topping?

    Thanks,
    Dan

    ReplyDelete
  2. SteveKotelesJune 24, 2011 at 9:52 AM

    Without the 8-day lead today is an I1 bottom day, although the nominal bottom would be next Thursday. The lead predicted this trading range start so I would expect it to predict it's end as well.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Fearful SyymmetryJune 28, 2011 at 3:20 PM

    Hello Steve,
    I appreciated the terse summary of your stance at the top of this post.

    ReplyDelete

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