6/22 Daily Commentary

Many times the stock market charges ahead of a Fed non-event.  Then, a couple of hours after the non-event occurs it gives it back.  The only "news" was that the Fed acknowledged that the economy remains slow, as if Keynsian economics could work forever.
I removed a bullish leg of a spread 1% UWM vs. 1% UCPIX, thus going short near the highs.  I'm sorry I did not pound the table, but the I1 components are still not peaked yet.  The Russell hit Elliott 31.8% retracement, technical, and M/A resistance.  I'm holding the UCPIX regardless of events.  I expect further weakness overnight but the market should hold together for a few more days.

DJI declined and stopped at it's critical M/A.

SP futures broke their 30-minute M/A.

While not a requirement for a continued rally, the daily composite is on a +24 buy signal until it declines to +4.  The minimum requirement for a +16 to +24 buy signal is a rally lasting several days.

The short-term timing component of I1 predicts at least 2 more sessions of upside.  This is not infallible but has worked well the last several months with an 8-day lead.

Finally, gold and silver are tied at the hip to the stock market.