Tuesday, October 5, 2010

10/5 Daily Commentary

Another day of waiting for the I1 turn date which peaks Thursday or Friday.  Instead of wave 1 of 5 subdividing into 3 distinct waves it extended almost into the close.  This is wave 3 behavior and I'm changing the count to wave 3 of 5 complete.  I'll look at the technical picture tonight once the daily data is in.  I'll post in 3 hours.
I bought less than 1% SDS late this morning just to get my toe in the water and keep my focus.   I stepped into short Euro this morning.  I also added to long dollar UUP at 22.60 up to 7.5%.  This is half of my target allocation, which must wait for strength by rallying above Dec DX futures 79.10.  This is moving down over time.
Crude may have finished it's 5th wave of the final abc of a double-zigzag.  It's top date is Wednesday-Thursday, so I am waiting until tomorrow afternoon earliest.  I'll be short crude soon.
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6 comments:

  1. CharlesOctober 5, 2010 at 2:15 PM

    Steve
    I have sell signals for S&P on weekly with daily probably this week. Also have daily and weekly sell on EFA, international developed. Sell on gold weekly. Sell on daily euro tomorrow. May get daily buy on VIX Thursday. Talk about things lining up into the three year anniversary of the start of the bear. My top target is 1170 S&P. Positionally, I have held throughout since the last I1 signal.
    Charles

    ReplyDelete
  2. SteveKotelesOctober 5, 2010 at 3:31 PM

    Hi Charles,
    Things are lining up. Can you move that daily euro sell back a day? I don't want it going higher.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 5, 2010 at 3:59 PM

    Charles

    I took a closer look at SPX top and you are right we could go to 1170 and stay in trend, its really pushing it but thats what the markets do.

    Jack C

    ReplyDelete
  4. TomOctober 5, 2010 at 10:23 PM

    Steve, I admire your work, but what happened to the I1 sell signal on September 10th? The market has gone in completely the opposite direction since then. Is I1 now no longer valid for the rest of the year?

    ReplyDelete
  5. SteveKotelesOctober 6, 2010 at 2:01 AM

    tom,
    The sell signal ended 9/30 at which time I got out of my shorts. Look at the Trade History. The posts were not ambiguous. The signal resumes this Thursday or Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  6. PeterOctober 6, 2010 at 4:28 AM

    I think the US dollar may be growing some horns.

    I hope so..

    ReplyDelete

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