Stock market in wave 5 up to complete abc rally from 8/26
Euro in wave 4 of 3 of 5 to complete abc rally from April at 118. Dollar low delayed by a day.
Crude in wave 5 of 5 of c of Y to complete double-zigzag from May.
The stock market has finished wave 4 up of either 5 of C or 5 of Y and will peak tonight/tomorrow to complete the rally from August. I will wait as long as I can before shorting so that I sell with the I1 turn date (tomorrow afternoon at the earliest). Currently the 5-minute, 380-unit EMA is at 10,879 and the break point is 10,734. This will be moving up tomorrow. The Dec. DJ futures equivalent is 10,750 and the break point is 10,658 but this will be moving up through the night. Either break will force me out of the pocket and short. Until then, I'm looking to short tomorrow afternoon (if the market holds up that long). Tomorrow's jobless claims report is important because it will set the trend to discount Friday's jobs report. I'll look for the trend from 10am on.
Thanks, great work - I totally agree. I'll be shorting the heck out of the EUR at 1.40 too :P
ReplyDeletePerhaps ES has already topped? Note the formation of a down channel. I think the Euro has topped and the Yen has bottomed. We'll see. Good luck.
ReplyDeletehttp://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es_3131.html
Steve,
ReplyDeleteMaybe I was right, but we will see if it ever turns!
Charles
Hi Steve, do you have an intermediate-term target for the Euro?
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteI have switched to long dollar instead of short Euro. The Fed has created beggar-thy-neighbor with Asian central banks protecting their currencies. Europe may do this but it will be later. Nonetheless the Fed policy will blow up in it's face and the dollar will rally against Euro. I don't have a downside target but it will take out the 1.18 lows.