Thursday, October 28, 2010

10/28 Daily Commentary

Although I1 is in a tiny uptrend to a very low peak of only .53 on 11/5 I don't believe that the stock market will hold up until then.  Until SPX 1171.80 is violated a diagonal is the first most probable count.  This implies a rally to a peak from 1202-1208.  If the FOMC announcement occurs before 1202 is reached then a spike high is the probable outcome.  A DJ futures decline below 10,910 will be the equivalent of a critical support break. 
I bought the dollar on the reaction to the 90-minute M/A.  Currently at 77.50 it will rescind it's buy signal with a 90-minute close beneath 77.34. 
Gold will trade opposite the dollar.  Gold has a 5 down from it's all-time high, so I have a target below 1315.6. 
Other than that, just chewing up the clock waiting for either a stock rally to new highs or a decline below critical support.
The street is still looking for QE2 from 500B to 1T. 

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