Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Animal Spirit Forecasts

This blog is superceded by the Animal Spirit Forecasts website, which includes a forum for subscribers.

Animal Spirit Forecasts is about gauging sentiment forward in time. This forecasting methodology is based on a data source which I devised starting 20 years ago. It began with research into correlations between environment and human behavior as measured in the financial markets. What began as research became conviction and then realization. I started making money with this data source 10 years ago and have been refining the analysis and improving returns ever since. The newsletter tracks my actual trades in the stock market, precious metals, and currencies (Euro and dollar).

Using the tools detailed below every trade that I have made since March, 2010 has been recorded (Trades Link) and the following $100,000 account record compiled (blue line below).

Please observe the amazingly small drawdowns (periods of negative account build) due to small positions and being consistently on the right side of the market.  This is due to my data sources described below.

As a subscriber you will have access to my current positions in an Excel spreadsheet on the website in a subscriber-only forum.

The keys to my success are:

1) an index of environmental data and solar-lunar cycles that I dub I1
2) technical composite indexes using daily and weekly data.

The following links are learning tools for the data series that use day-in and day-out:

I1 for Investors

Learn about I1 and it's trading rules

To download I1 history for your own research into this powerful new data source:

I use one of the components of I1 to time trades within the longer I1 moves.  This component is a variable monthly cycle calculated from various solar and lunar relationships.  This short-term timing component helps me pinpoint tradeable moves within longer trends.  This has it's own rule set.

I also use a daily technical composite for the stock market which I have found very useful when it reaches extremes.  It and it's rule set is at:

There are also similar forward gauges for precious metals, bonds, dollar, and crude.
Precious metals:


All of the posts prior to the subscription cutover are available as well as the Excel spreadsheet of every trade that I have posted (and made in my own accounts, delayed by 2 weeks).

I invite you to investigate the accuracy of these data sources which you will find nowhere else.

I offer a 1-week trial if you request it by emailing

To subscribe you must provide your e-mail address or I will not know where to e-mail the newsletter and intraday updates.

Payment is $15 per month, payable :

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Animal Spirit Forecasts
PO Box 797
Pie Town, NM 87827

The mail does not deliver to the house so I drive into town several times a week to pick up mail. I won't be very quick to stop your e-mails so if you are a few days late it's OK.

What you will receive are:

Daily Commentary - due to the timing of the various data sources this will be e-mailed twice, once shortly after market close and again with complete data 7:30pm, while ARCA trading is still going on.

Intraday Commentary - trades arising out of the strategy in the Daily Commentary as well as stops and new situations

Weekly Commentary - e-mailed Saturday with economic issues, upcoming trades, longer-term views on stock markets, precious metals, bonds, and currencies. The oil market is coming out of period where it has been dominated by international political events, so I'll be picking up my commentary and trades on the oil market as well.

I'll respond to e-mails sent to and will also respond to comments on the blog,

I thank all of the people that have followed this blog in the past year and 3 months. I offer a very low subscription rate until the end of the year and grandfather each and every one of you that subscribes at the current rate for 3 years (who knows what prices will be then, there could be a discount).

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

7/5 Daily Commentary

Daily Commentary - Word doc, click here.
                                PDF, click here.

This is the last commentary available via the blog.  Please subscribe per the Sign-Up page to continue receiving Animal Spirit Forecasts.  My thanks to the many readers that have signed up for subscription.  Your support has genuinely touched me. if you want to subscribe.  Just indicate that you want to subscribe and intend to send payment.  For details see the Sign-Up page.

7/5 3:40

SP futures 30-minute M/A has held the first test.   SPX and DJI have topped.  Nasdaq is filling out it's 5th of c.  I don't hold any Nasdaq shorts and will attempt to enter futures short on break of 2353.25.  I'll short SP futures on a rally after a 30-minute close below 1326.

The stock market is making a head-and-shoulders top. Although the smoothed I1 declines into late August the ensuing I1 advance stays well below 3.25 which, according to the rule set in the Intro and Concepts page, means that longer-term traders can stay short.  I intend to keep a small core short position but will go primarily to cash on these swings. On an even longer time frame the market declines into 2nd quarter 2012.

I want to invite readers to subscribe.  If paypal then email at and I will start your subscription pending mail or bank billpay payment.

7/5 2:05

SPX and DJI have completed their c wave up.  I have no exposure to Nasdaq and had a stop order at 2353.25 which never got filled.  Meanwhile the SP 30-minute M/A crept up to the current price range.  Selling 1% ES  futures at 30-minute, 92-unit M/A minus .5% on a 30-minute close.  Currently any 30-minute close below 1326.

7/5 9:50

The stock market is finding support at SP futures 30-minute M/A. 
There are 2 M/A support break points:
SP futures 30-minute,92-unit M/A breaks at any 30-minute close below 1324.50
The closer one is NQ futures 15-minute, 86-unit which breaks at 2353.25.  I have an order in shorting here on a stop.