Tuesday, November 30, 2010

11/30 11:30

The stock market has been in a tight trading range for the last 9 days.  I1 makes a peak 12/6.  I expect a breakout upward going into this peak which will form the B wave of a triangle.  I'll short then, but only for a trip back to 1180.  I will continue to sip mint julips and take it slow until the trading range is more mature.

Gold is showing a lot of strength reflecting the EU fiat.  Silver riding along with it.  Both will coast along with any stock rally.  Looking to short silver around $29.

11/30 pre-open

Shorted SP futures at 1180.50 and covered at 1175.25.  Standing aside.

Monday, November 29, 2010

11/29 Daily Commentary

SPX hit resistance in cash at 1190.25 and in futures hit the hourly M/A at 1190 and approached the 30-minute M/A at 1190.50.  The rally overlapped the prior wave 1 down so it is not in a 5 down.  So far it has completed 3 waves.  Cash was forming a rectangle into the close.  Moving averages were clustered at the top of the rally in both cash and futures.  Instead of turning tail and running SPX and DJ futures backed off slowly and have made a 3 down.  I sold the SDS on ARCA at 26.91.  I'll go short tonight if SP futures 15-minute M/A (green line) is broken by more than 2.5 points.
The market's action is consistent with trading range behavior.  An important DJI M/A closed stop on it after this morning's low.
SPX approached last week's low but did not pierce it.  The DJI new low was a fake-out setup for the rally.

11/29 2:50

Bought 4% SDS 26.94.  Stop beyond SPX 1191.

11/29 2:20

SPX and DJI are forming ascending triangles.  SPX above 1181 will carry to 1188.  A cluster of M/As currently extends between 1189.50-1190.50.

Looking at the stock market from a broader perspective, my wave count changed when the market indices all exceeded the April highs.  At that time I shifted to a 5 up in progress from the July low to complete an abc up from March, 2009.  In order for this count to remain valid DJI 10,700 needs to stay intact, as it is the wave 1 high. 

11/29 12:30

The b wave of the E bottomed at 1174.92, so a = c at 1182.  With a stop at 1187 that's a 5 point risk.  With I1 up I don't want to do that. If if rallies to 1186 I'll take a shot.

11/29 11:00am

Got an order to buy 4% SDS when SPX hits 1183.98.  This is A = C.

Silver daily M/A (green line) has held through this entire rally.  I have to see a break of this or a rally to $28 to get bearish.

11/29 10:30

SPX 1173 held.  The triangle is composed of clear 3 waves.  If SPX forms 3 up and 1186.93 is not penetrated to the upside then this E wave will complete the triangle.
As long as I1 is in uptrend I am reticent to short stocks, but if the E wave completes I can short on it with a stop at 1187 and limit risk.

11/29 pre-open

Friday's post-holiday trading was very thin.  DJI 10,975 and SPX 1673 are key support.  I1 peaks next Monday at a very low level which keeps me in the trading range camp.  Looking to short silver at higher levels.  If stocks rally then silver should as well.
I hope everyone's holiday was pleasant.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

11/24 Daily Commentary

The stock market is still on track to build a wave 4 ascending triangle bounded by SPX 1225 on the top with a target buy date 12/21.  A month is a long time to go nowhere so it would seem this forecast is bucking the odds.  If it pans out the launch should be sharp and conclude the 2009-2010 rally.  The hurdle is breaking the 5-minute, 370-unit EMA on the upside by 1.35% which is 11,255.  Breaking 10,975 will get me short. I don't want to trade this triangle.

I'm still waiting on silver to pop to $29 out of it's rectangle.

Happy Thanksgiving! 

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

11/23 Addendum

Here's what I'm looking at to confirm any break of 10,975 is genuine.  The blue M/A must be broken by 135 points.
It was a 3-wave down so there is no hope of a 5 down developing.  A break of the low will cause me to go short a small amount, but it won't be meaningful until this daily M/A break occurs.

11/23 Daily Commentary

I'm still looking for the stock market to form a trading range/triangle over the next month.  Breaking 10,975 will change the picture.  I1 is at very low levels but is gently moving up into the first week of December.
The market broke critical support 2 weeks ago which is a big deal.  However, if the market moves into a trading range it makes any moving average system lame.  Breaking 10,975 will establish a trend. Meanwhile, if one expects a trading range it is best to do nothing until a trend develops.
I took a stab at silver but backed off on the realization that there is probably one more push upward.  This could go all the way to the old high 29.

11/23 1:40

Covered the silver short at 27.55 looking for a pop to an abc high around 27.90.  Shorting again 27.87.

11/23 10:15

I took advantage of the artillery exchange to short silver at 27.66 with a stop at 27.761.
Housing number took the Nasdaq briefly below it's trading range.  DJI has support down to 10,975.

Monday, November 22, 2010

11/22 Daily Commentary

The failure of cash stock indices to eke out a 5th up this morning left a disparity between futures and cash.  I have revised futures count to 4th wave complete with 5th iminent.  Nasdaq Composite is tracing a clear 4th wave rectangle.  The expected breakout upward will be 5th and put it on track to complete an abc up to the high of 11/9.
Silver has returned to the high of last week.  I'm looking to short at 27.84.

11/22 pre-open

I count the SP futures as completing a 5 up from the 11/16 low.  Same for DJ and ND futures.

So, completing this abc down and rallying to complete the abc up is the expected path.  This 5 up is the 2nd wave of what I expect to be an ascending triangle with 3 tests of 1225 SP futures prior to resumption of the final 5 up for 2009-2010 rally top.  I1 is up through 12/6 and that is a lot of time just to be milling around in a triangle.  The absolute values of I1 are a very low levels so a vigorous rally is not in the cards. 
Silver popped overnight with stocks but has since withered with them as well.  On the expected stock rally I want to short silver.

Friday, November 19, 2010

11/19 Daily Commentary

At the hotel.  I count SPX as in 3rd of 5th wave up from Wednesday's low.

This count won't be concrete until critical resistance is broken at DJI 11,275.

11/19 pre-open

4:30 here in NM, but got a good night's sleep.  Perspective is the same, sold 4% SDS at 26.71.  I1 bottomed yesterday.
Sold DX futures position at 78.58. 
On the road today with no positions on.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

11/18 Daily Commentary

We got our answer.  An abc down was all this cycle would give and it reinforces the view that a triangle or rectangle Minor 4 is probably in progress.  The intraday count is wave (iv) of Minute 1 up.
I sold 6% SDS at 26.50, sold 2% QID for 12.68, and sold the ZSL for 13.56.  I'm still carrying 4% SDS until the market breaks critical resistance.  This is DJI 5-minute, 370-minute M/A +1.35%, or 11,275. 
I'm going to bed, last night was a no-sleep night.
I'll be driving my wife to catch a plane to Boston tomorrow.  I'll catch up at the hotel.

11/18 11:45

The stock market has completed 3 up.  If it continues in it's sideways motion for another hour and thrusts upward again that will indicate a 5 up.  I believe that the market will turn down from here first.  The 5-minute, 370-unit M/A was crossed at 11,125 with a critical resistance break at 11,275. 

11/18 10:05

SPX overlapped so no potential 5 down.  Covered DJ short at 11,132.

11/18 10:00

SPX wave 1 low 1194.26 has not been overlapped by today's rally.  If a 5 wave down is in motion then the market will not wait around at these levels but turn down immediately.  I shorted DJ futures at 11120.

11/18 8:45am

The rally occurring with only 1 session into the I1 low increases the odds of a Minor 4 triangle because we have a complete 3 down and the probability of smashing below yesterday's low in a single session is low. I was hoping for and betting on the rectangle being wave 4 and a 5 down developing.
The conclusion is that this I1 cycle will only form a 3 down unless the market extends the decline beyond the I1 low, which is again a lower probability. 
The forecast posted 11/8 and again on 11/16 holds:
I am counting the March,2009 - April,2010 rally as a 5 wave, an abc correction from April to early July, and a 5 wave, of which Minor wave 3 finished 11/5.

The upcoming Minor wave 4 will probably last into December 21, with an initial low 11/18, a rally to 12/3-4, and a retest of the low of 11/18 occurring on 12/21. So, odds favor a rectangle or triangle. Wave 5 will probably not break out until after the 1st week of January then rally into the 4th week of March.  When complete this 5 wave will complete wave C up from 2009.

11/18 8:05am

Just bought 2% SDS 26.81.

11/18 pre-open

The push I was looking for Wednesday night occurred last night with the EU, IMF, and Britain in a show of fiat force with a loan larger than necessary for Ireland.  FM IPO buzz is in there as well. The cash market count is pretty clear with a wave 4 in progress.  The alternate is that the 3 waves down finished an abc which is all we will see for this I1 cycle.   Wave 4 must stop at 1196 SPX the Minute 1 low, which is 17.40 above it's close.
SP futures has a slightly different count but the same conclusion.  Wave 4 overlaps at 1193.25, but this being futures some trivial overlap is allowed.  Give it to 1194.
If the cash market violates Minute 1 then the down move must be counted as complete.
I walked into tonight with no futures positions.  I bought 1% DX futures 78.665.  JP Morgan predicts dollar to fall a ton so that means a bull market is in the cards.  DX cannot go below 78.50 without invalidating the count below:
This puts the dollar market right at critical support now and implies a top for the stock futures as well.
DX wave 5 should top out just under 80.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

11/17 Daily Commentary

Stock market is up in night trade.  This is buzz surrounding GM IPO which starts trading tomorrow.  SP futures 30-minute M/A is 1181 currently with 6 points above (1187) on a 30-minute close being the breakout point.  Hourly M/A is 1187.55 so this is a target if the push continues.  Being at the 30-minute M/A means that the push may not continue.
Silver is up in sympathy with stocks.  I have a small exposure via ZSL. 
The dollar should decline to 78.77 if stocks move up and I'll buy there.  The dollar is in the midst of a 3rd wave up.

11/17 3:10

Bought 2% QID 13.12.

11/17 1:40

The Nasdaq gives a pretty clear picture of a final spurt to finish off wave 4. Keeping plenty of powder dry to short on completion of Y.

11/17 1:00

Just an update on my strategery (is that how you spell it?). 
At 1:30 the SP futures 30-minute M/A will come down to just above the session high (1182).  With I1 bottoming tomorrow the odds favor a downside breakout from this trading range.  I'll be looking to add a short futures position today.
I bought the short silver ETF rather than shorting the futures to limit the exposure.  Futures pile on pretty quickly.
I want to go long the dollar but I'm hoping for a deeper retracement for my entry point.

11/17 12:40

SP futures 30-minute M/A has moved down to below 1183 and hourly stochastic is re-entering the sell zone.  I'll want to hold short until 30-minute M/A is broken by 2 points.

11/17 noon

Bought 2% ZSL 14.72.

11/17 10:27

Changing stop to > DJI 10,041 sell 4% SDS

11/17 10:20

Stop on 4% SDS is 1182 futures

11/17 10:10

SP futures rallying beyond 1181 will signal a rally to 1188.

11/17 pre-open

The rectangle is holding so far in overnight trading.  Because a breakout did not occur overnight I am counting this as Minute4.  In the cash market SPX can count as 3rd wave down complete as it is equal in size to wave 1. 
Bought 4% SDS 27.32.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

11/16 Daily Commentary

11/5 was the top day for this decline.  Odds favor this as a wave 4 within a larger abc up.  Wave 4 should not be deeper than the wave 2 zigzag in August, which was about 775 points.  Therefore this decline should be limited to 10,665 and should be a triangle or rectangle.  Currently the market has completed wave 1 of the 3rd wave down which should complete Thursday.  Assuming wave 2 will not be a rectangle then it should retrace 38.1% of the decline from Friday since Friday was larger degree wave 2 top.  This measures to 11,100 which is within the 4th wave of lesser degree.  The SPX measures up to 1187.50.

In order for the market to be in Minor wave 4 up is for the decline to be a 3 wave and end before 10,665. With I1 due to bottom Thursday this bottom should not be the end of the decline, hence I have marked today's low as Minuette1 of Minute3.  Minuettes 2,3,4,5 should develop by the end of Thursday.
If the market instead extends today's rectangle into tomorrow (that is, does not rally tonight) then this will increase the odds that it is wave 4 of a 5 wave down.  If this decline develops into a 5 down then the higher level count would need to be revisited and perhaps revised.
I plan on shorting DJ futures at 11,082.
The Euro declined in what I believe to be a completed 5th wave down.  It should retrace back to 136.20.  The prospect of this recovery in Euro is what caused me to exit dollar long and increased the odds for a stock retracement upward.

11/16 3:50

I expect an overnight pop to the 11,100 area as today's decline was the first wave of wave 3 down.  Wave 3 should complete by the close Thursday in accord with I1. 
I won't be re-entering short silver unless a large retracement develops.  I took $3 out of silver and it is at support. 
Markets are set for overnight reversals IMO.

11/16 3:45

Sold DX futures 79.36 as it looks like the Euro has completed 5 down.

11/16 2:15

SPX hit chart support and DJI round-number support so I expect a retracement of decline from yesterday's high.  I'm labelling this as a completed wave 3 or the first wave of an extended 3 and expect a move to 11,100. 
Holding dollar long for 80 target.

11/16 12:45

I took profits in silver because $25 is chart support, an important daily M/A is at 25.31, and silver should have continued it's decline in the face of the dollar rally but stalled at lower levels.
I covered my DJ futures at 11,000 not because the decline is over, but to catch a breath and maybe catch a shorting point at a higher level.  If DJI goes below 10,975 then I'll add back the 4% SDS.  I've made really good money this past 2 weeks and want to de-leverage a bit.

11/16 12:30

Covered silver futures 25.19.

11/16 12:15

Sold 4% SDS at 27.45 on DJI round-number 11,000.
Covered DJ futures at 10,979.

11/16 10:30

We have a gap this morning that will be filled at 1197.15.  I have no idea when this will occur.
My expectations for the stock market were expressed 11/8 but I'll update them here.
When SPX exceeded the April high that destroyed any double-zigzag count that I may have entertained. I am counting the March,2009 - April,2010 rally as a 5 wave, an abc correction from April to early July, and a 5 wave, of which Minor wave 3 finished 11/5.  When complete this 5 wave will also complete wave C up from 2009.

The upcoming Minor wave 4 will probably last into December 21, with an initial low 11/18, a rally to 12/3-4, and a retest of the low of 11/18 occurring on 12/21. So, odds favor a rectangle. Wave 5 will probably not break out until after the 1st week of January then rally into the 4th week of March.
Minor wave 4 should not exceed 775 points, the width of Minor wave 2 in August which leaves 10,665 as the max possible downside.  There is chart support at 10,700.

11/16 pre-open

Stocks in 3rd down from the high 11/5.  The 5th was the top I1 day so it caught this decline.  Ireland may go cap in hand for help which would mean passing Irish debt onto the ECB plus some for good measure.  It's not sitting in a savings account.
Precious metals down sharply but I expect a bit of a bounce today.
I'm hoping to not do any trades today.  Short 1% DJ futures, long 8% SDS, short 1% silver futures, long 1% Dollar futures.

Monday, November 15, 2010

11/15 Daily Commentary

Came in 4% SDS and short 1% SI futures.  Market rallied to DJI 5-minute, 370-unit M/A and was turned back.  Last week this M/A was broken by more than 1.35% triggering a sell signal.  This was an important event because it's been almost 3 months since critical support or resistance was last broken.

Wave (iv) is more discernible on the SPX chart where it formed a nice descending triangle.
Bought another 4% SDS at 26.24 and shorted 1% DJ futures at 10,217. 
The dollar actually rallied as stocks rallied today, indicating that market sentiment is pushing upward hard.
DX futures closed above the 2 prior highs put in as the base was building.  This frees the dollar for a spring forward. to 80.  I re-entered the dollar long at 78.59 having taken the bulk of the initial long move last week.

Here is the dollar's forward sentiment gauge which timed this low well.  This gauge will rally for at least 4 months.  The dollar inversely drives commodity prices.

Crude did not rally with stocks and is showing uncharacteristic weakness (probably because it is correlated more strongly with the dollar).  I did not re-enter a short trade because I'm already in 3 correlated futures positions.

Silver broke down from a large triangle last week, is in wave 3 down, and I'm holding short until a big 5 down completes.  This could be down to $20 level.

11/15 3:05

I mistyped the DJ futures price.  I shorted at 11,217 not 11,227.

11/15 2:55

Shorted 1% DJ futures 11,217.

11/15 2:30

Bought DX futures 78.59, amazing relative strength during the stock market rally.  3rd of 3rd in motion, IMO.

11/15 2:15

Looks like the abc up is complete.  Bought 4% SDS 26.24.

11/15 2:00

Silver is completing iv of (iii) down.  Crude is showing weakness relative to stock futures.  Dollar is showing relative strength.  I'll be going long dollar at the same time as short stocks.  Holding silver short.
Looks like one more push up for stock indices.

11/15 1:20

Changing order to short DJ futures 11,264 and buy 4% SDS when DJI >=11,299. 

11/15 12:05

My order is to buy 4% SDS when SPX hits 1208.15.
Short DJ futures same time.

11/15 noon

Stock indices are in iv of (v) of C from Friday's low, completing a 5 down from the high 11/5.
I'm currently 4% SDS waiting for wave C to complete.

11/15 11:15

Covered DJ futures 11,200.  Waiting to see how SPX and XMI break out of triangle.

11/15 10:15

The abc may be complete.  I shorted DJ futures 11,196.
The dollar has managed to rally in the face of the stock market rally.  It's not going to hit my target so I'll look for a higher entry.  Last week I exited the dollar at 78.30.
I1 remains consistently below 3.25 threshold all the way to the 12/21 bottom.

11/15 9:30

Still expecting more upside in the stock market to abc the prior 5 down.  Order shorting DJ futures still working at 11,220.  Crude short order working at 86.275.  Dollar buy order working at 77.82. 
I1 bottoms at the close Thursday. 

Sunday, November 14, 2010

11/14 4:30

Stock futures have opened a bit higher.  I have an order to short DJ futures at 11,220.
I have an order shorting crude at 86.20 and buying the dollar at 77.82.
Gold and silver are a bit higher and I am holding short silver with no further orders.
Charles posited a comment regarding Fed intent.  Ben knows a bear market will produce deflationary psychology. In my view he had five goals with QE:

1) Stop the implosion in leverage assets that was occurring in 2008/2009
2) Push down the dollar to get U.S. business more competitive
3) Buoy the stock market and reverse the negative psychology at that time
4) Keep long-term rates low so that banks would be forced out of the spread and start to lend. This would also finance the exposion of treasury debt and keep finance costs down.
5) Get a knock-on effect on employment and economic activity once psychology turned from deflation to inflation.
QE2 came along at a time when the Fed had succeeded in the first 4 goals but deemed it touch-and-go concerning the 5th.  I believe Ben knew that with GOP in control of the House that if he were going to expand the fiat it had to be before the committees were reconstituted and opposition organized on the House floor.  Since QE2 the negative effects of the original QE were being manifested:  long rates were coming back up and commodities had peaked, albeit from a high level.  The market response since QE2 has been counter-intuitive.  Goals 2, 3, and 4 were being reversed as world markets perceived the effects of QE, the chief effect being the rapid escalation of protectionism, still in it's early stages.  Exported inflation in the form of rising commodity costs to emerging industrial states with weak natural resources was supposed to raise their costs along with the weak dollar and get America back into the game.  The actual effect was to make America an economic pariah, to be fought individually and via trading blocs.
The markets are going to be leaving politicians and media pundits scratching their heads. I don't think they want to lower markets to get treasuries rallying again.  At this point all the Fed wants to do is restoke inflation.  When one looks at the CRB index over the past year and a half with a 50% gain why anyone would want to restoke inflation is a question for a psychologist.

Friday, November 12, 2010

11/12 Daily Commentary

The turn in sentiment was first in the dollar,  then in commodities,  then in stocks.  This week I made good money in long dollar,  then in short silver (still holding) and short crude,  then going short the SPX via SDS.  I1 peaked 11/5 and the dominos started falling. 
The ability of the DJI to trade beneath 11,210 is very important.  This is the first time in several months that this has occurred.  The close below this level is also important to me.  I played it safe taking profits at SPX 1194.60 and carried only 2% SDS into the close.   I increased the exposure to 4% after hours at 26.57.  My best interpretation is that another decline to SPX 1191 is probable before the 5 down is complete.
I believe the dollar needs to decline marginally below 77.83 and I'll put in an order Sunday at 77.82 buying it.  This view of the dollar has shaded my opinion of the stock market in that there may be more upward correction Sunday night in the stock index futures.
Silver has broken down out of a descending triangle with a couple dollars more decline ahead.
I covered crude on what I suspect is the completion of a 5 down.  If it rallies 3 up I'll sell again.

Have a great weekend!

11/12 3:55

Still only 2% SDS.  Counted a 5 up in the Comp, so some more consolidation needed.  Going in light over the weekend. 

11/12 2:50

Sold 2% SDS 26.53.

11/12 1:40

Bought 2% SDS on return to 150-minute M/A.  Now at 4% SDS and short silver futures.

11/12 1:20

Here is the chart that convinced me to cover crude on the belief that crude had the potential for a bounce.

11/12 1:10

I trimmed my SDS exposure to 2% pending a decline below 1193.90.  As part of wave 1 this could have been the orthodox high, instead of 1194.53.  So far SPX has declined to 1194.08.  Since I sold SDS at 1194.60 there is little difference to be sure that overlap occurred.
Silver is declining out of the triangle and is down 2.00 from my short entry.  No target today.
Crude has been breaking support and is down 2.75 from my short entry.  Covered at 84.75.

11/12 12:55

SPX declined to a slight overlap with wave 1.  Bought 2% SDS 26.70.  Buy another 3% on decline below 1193.94.  Currently at 4% SDS.

11/12 12:36

Got to 1192.50.  I'll get back into SDS bigger when it breaks this.

11/12 12:30

Sold 4% SDS 26.64 and will wait on SP futures break 1193.

11/12 12:25

SPX just got to 1196.25.  Support at 1196, now we see what this decline is made of....

11/12 noon

The stock market did not get to the 150-minute M/A.  A normal downtrend gets to this M/A routinely, so I gauge the decline as early in the trend.
I like descending triangles, more reliable.

11/12 11:30

Buying another 2% SDS on rally to 150-minute M/A DJI, currently at 11,230.

11/12 11:10

The next milestone is SP futures breaking 1193.  I'll short more then.

Making a lot on my futures shorts.  I believe the trend is down now in all risk assets.

11/12 10:55

Bought another 2% SDS at 26.41 on DJI<11,200.
Silver just broke down from a large descending triangle.

11/12 10:40

Just got our sell signal DJI<11,210.  Bought 4% SDS 26.37.  Buying more on rally to the 150-minute M/A.

11/12 pre-open

DJ futures hit their flash point by declining to 11,106, but could not hold with the lowest hourly close 11,130.
SP futures did not hit critical support 7.5 points below their 90-minute M/A.  Low 1193.25 vs. M/A 1199.68.

Currently the SP futures sell signal is a 1193.50 with an M/A of 1200.18.
The cash SPX wave 1 high is 1194.25, so breaking this will confirm the DJI signal.

3-month Libor is still not moving, even with the Irish crisis.  .2844 at this morning's fixing, a touch lower than yesterday's.  So markets are not concerned.
Crude trade played out well, shorting at 87.60 and now at 86.  I have a multi-month view on the short side.  Expecting a bounce back in crude, perhaps to 87.
Silver working as well with a bounce back to 27.30 expected.
I am not trading in and out of these shorts because I'm afraid of being left behind.  When stocks break critical support these will crater.
Still looking at DJI 11,210 and SP futures 1193.50 to begin shorting stocks.  When the time comes I'll split order with market shorts and limit shorts at higher prices.
The dollar stopped at daily chart highs.  Looking at 77.77 to buy again.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

11/11 7:05pm

Shorted 1% CL futures 87.60.
My short point for stock futures is the DJ hourly M/A less 82 points.  11,215-82=11,133:

11/11 Daily Commentary

I'm currently short silver futures, stop 28.27.The stab at critical support failed to pierce it again.  This support has held for 2 months as Ben has blown into the sails of the Good Ship America in his bathtub.   We're his playthings and he has as much awareness of the consequences as any 4-year old. 
G-20 is going splendidly, no wars declared.  I don't believe that the statements that U.S. pols utter is subterfuge, but genuine ignorance.  The big quote today by Obama: "Obama also added to recent U.S. government remarks defending U.S. monetary easing, saying that, telling reporters that “if the U.S. isn’t growing that’s not good for the rest of the world.  If individual countries are engaging in practises that are purposely designed to boost their exports at the expense of others, that produces problems as opposed to solving them,”.   If he were aware of the incongruity of that last sentence then he should be awarded the Hypocrite of the Year award.  His intelligence is oriented around things other than economics, so I don't think he got it.  His trading partners know what the Fed is doing and are quietly erecting capital barriers to prevent dollars from flooding in.  Trade barriers follow capital barriers as night follows day.  Barriers go up only when trust evaporates.  Trade barriers go up when open hostility reigns.  So Obama targetted South Korea because they export so many more cars than they import.  A step into the Korean market reveals that auto imports have increased from <1% in 2001 to 7.21% 2008 but Koreans vastly prefer EU and Japanese cars to American.  Bad target, U.S. delivers poor value vis-a-vis the Korean Won.  If the U.S. can't find genuinely closed markets outside of China then we should go ahead and attack China.  No cahones for that one, the Chinese are already erecting fences around themselves to shield from Ben's great flood.  Push them further and capital barriers expand to other, nasty things.
DJI critical support remains at 11,210.  SP futures support is rising and should get to today's low by the open tomorrow.

If DJI 11,210 falls then this M/A minus 7.5 points is the final domino.
Crude seems to have de-coupled from the stock market and I'll be going short futures this evening.  It's forward sentiment gauge is bearish for the next several months and the wave count shows a completed abc up from the May lows.  SCO is the double-short ETF.

Dollar is in a major bull market.  Minute 1 up is complete and Minute 2 may be complete.  The count from the 77.58 low is a 3 with further 3-wave chops to nominal new highs.  This is not how 3rd of 3rds behave.  As the stock market goes so should the dollar.  As the dollar goes so should the stock market.  The potential for further wave 2 development causes me to stand aside.  Taking out 78.65 overnight will get me long.  This is above the daily highs registered over the past several weeks. 

11/11 1:30

In normal market conditions I would say that the stock market is on the verge of breaking critical support.  This is the most flagrant Fed reflation since the Fed began in 1913.  We came within a single DJI point of breaking critical support several weeks ago.   I have my top count as wave 4 in progress of a 5 up that began a week ago Monday.  Overlapping 11,220 will bust that count.  11,210 is the critical support break point.  Until that is broken then Ben wins.  The equivalent wave 1 high in SPX is 1194, which is farther down than the DJI point.  Here is SPX 15-minute M/A which is currently at 1206.  I think 8 points below this will bust it.
1196 is also nice chart support so I would expect a bounce here.  Breaking 1194 will convincingly break chart support and the wave 1 high, so I'm still rooting for 1193.90.
As an aside, I updated the Trade History with current positions.  There is a 4% SDS position that does not have an offsetting sell order in the model account.  This is not reflected in any of my actual accounts.  Since the market price is at 26.01 here I am offsetting at my buy price.  I am currently flat stock positions.

11/11 11:00

The dollar, stocks, crude, and metals have all been trading on the tailwind of sentiment created by the Fed treasury buy program.  I1 measures sentiment but market sentiment has been overwhelmed by the Fed.  I'll know that the pendulum has swung back to market sentiment when first DJI 11,210 then SPX 1994 are broken.  DJI has wave 1 at 11,220 so taking out 11,210 will also invalidate any potential 5 up in progress and confirm the last rally was only a 3.  This would seal the count for the C wave starting in July.  This is why I've adopted a wait-and-see over the past week.

The dollar has completed Minute 1 and may have completed Minute 2.  With the stock critical support so near I would prefer to wait but if the rally extends 15 cents beyond the high then Minute 3 will be in progress.