Wednesday, June 30, 2010

6/30 Daily Commentary

I sold my SDS at 37.54.  Reason:  wave Subminuette iii appeared complete and a recovery to 9820 is possible.  The following 550-day M/A intersects price at 9770.  I sold SDS at DJI 9777.  9774 is the 5/25 low, which was Minor 1.  I sold just above this low:

As I stated above the move down to the low was Subminuette iii of Minuette v of Minute1 of Minor 3. 

Jobless claims are tomorrow morning and the trend into jobs day will start tomorrow after 10am.  Wednesday, Thursday, Friday of Jobs week is a period when the stock/bond market enters into another dimension.  The rules change and so do I.

Here is the latest daily technical composite.  Not quite into sell territory.

Has anybody noticed that the markets are not getting blindsided by Bernanke any more?  He has used up all of his ammunition and alienated some of his board members with his creative nonsense.

I'm using this evening to familarize myself with a new futures trading platform.  Platforms have evolved into complex systems that require time to digest.  I hope to get a short off at 1030 in the Sep futures.

Tomorrow, Thursday, I'll be driving to Albuquerque.  I take my wife to doctors and we stay overnight because we schedule so much business and it takes so long to drive.  I'll create the pre-open and stay around for start of trading.

6/30 3:40

Sold SDS at 37.54

6/30 2:10

The count posted last night, that Minuette iii ended yesterday still stands as highest probability.  The ADP report caused me to increase the probability of yet another muted rally attempt (less than 1.5%).  This would fit in with an abbreviated Minuette iv in time and price and resolution to the Minuette v low directly ahead.  There are now only 2.75 trading sessions to the mid-day 7/6 I1 bottom (7/5 is a holiday).  Minuette ii lasted 1 day from low to high.  Wave iv started yesterday at 3:45.  Wave ii was a triangle.  Wave iv so far is a flat, so alternation applies.  My labelling of the waves relies on the fact that the I1 low will mark Minute 1 of Minor 3.  The completed zigzag for Minuette iv is a 3-3-5, thus it is a flat.

6/30 12:45

If my stops are taken out I will want to trade the following 5-minute, 200-unit EMA:

6/30 noon

I split my stop to XMI > 1093.25 and SPX > 1050.10.
If stops are taken out then the ADP was not relevant.  If taken out then I'll wait for DJI 9960.  I don't normally trade news but I thought ADP was some key data that will guide trend toward the jobs report.
We'll see... 

6/30 11:50

Changed stop slightly to XMI > 1093.25

6/30 11:20

Stop is now XMI > 1093.10

6/30 11:10

Changing stop to 9905

6/30 11:00

Changing the stop to 9915.

6/30 10:20

The stock market was all set to take off, then the ADP came out.  We have a 3-wave off of yesterday's low in the cash market.  Futures allow for another low before Minute iii is done.  The stop on my short is DJI 9,952.

6/30 10:00

DJI did not make it to 9910.  Bought 2% SDS at 36.68.

6/30 9:50

The cash market took the ADP report in stride.  Wall Street is full of economists that will paint over anything.  They have these elaborate quant models that show the economic engine as a simple combination of inputs that yield an output:  GDP and jobs.  The ADP report will be discounted today because Friday is crunch day, the jobs report.
Net-net:  I'll start shorting at DJI 9910 2% SDS.  This is just getting my toes wet.

6/30 pre-open

SP futures were up almost 10 points until the ADP report came out.  What a shocker.  63,000 jobs forecast,  13,000 delivered.  This has to impact the estimates for the jobs report on Friday.  Estimates were for 150,000 private sector jobs added but it looks like this is a fairy tale.  Thursday is the jobs report discounting day, after the weekly claims report. 
The futures count differs from the cash market.  In the futures there is room for another low before Minute iii ends.

In addition to the lows themselves there is a complex of moving averages across the indices that intersect at or near the lows.  I believe that 9777 will hold. I'll post some examples later today.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

6/29 Daily Commentary

Minute iii down is complete.  Therefore, we are in Minuette iv of Minute 1 of Minor 3 of Intermediate 1 of Primary 3.
I sold my SDS at 36.70 and covered my SP futures short a point away from the bottom on a clear 5-wave completion to 9812.  Normally I would expect a timid bounce or a triangle for Minute iv.  However, the market indices are burrowing deep within a make-or-break support zone for the bulls.  I've talked about this before, but the entire psychology of the market will change on a clear break of lows that have been hit 4 times since February, especially when the lows form a clear head-and-shoulders neckline. The market has not had even a 1.5% rally since the decline started 6/21.  Sentiment has been absolutely smothering this market.  I'll be looking to put on short at 9,920 and 10,000 for the final move to Minute v.  
I1 is on a formal sell signal. There are 4 trading sessions through the I1 bottom 5/5.  Since 5/5 is a holiday I will be looking for the low mid-day on 5/6.   This cuts it down to 3.5 sessions. This is about the right amount of time for Miv to complete and Mv to go to a new low below the Feb and May lows, fooling the most people at the critical moment. 

I have had smaller short positions than I would prefer but have made good money through the decline.  My normal mode is to watch for counter-trend moves near logical stop prices and add to positions while maintaing a core position with the I1 trend.  This has served me well through my trading career, but this decline has seen consistently muted rallies.   Thus, another argument for a snap-back tomorrow, because the market lures people to expect the abnormal to continue, while it sets up to revert to the mean. The final argument for a snap-back is that Minute ii was a triangle, unusual for a 2nd wave.  Alternating points to a zig-zag for Minute iv.

6/29 3:48

Covering SP futures short at 1031.

6/29 3:45

Final leg down.  Minute iii being completed.  Expect a good bounce when done.

6/29 3:25

In Sub-Minuette v to complete Minuette iii.  Sub-dividing lower than 9841.

6/29 11:25

Shorting on next new high, about 9,960.  Daily technical composite is +14.  Anything above +22 is a sell signal, but I expect it to get to +28 since we just had a buy signal a couple of weeks ago.

6/29 10:45

Currently 4% short SP futures.  Looking to re-enter SDS on this bounce.

6/29 10:30

Sold 2% SDS at 36.70.  Sub-Minuette iii appears complete.  Still 4% short futures.

6/29 10:25

We are in Minuette iii of Minute iii.   My profit-taking target is still 9,840.

6/29 9:45

Spending 3.5 days struggling against the I1 sentiment trend resolved short-term oversold conditions. DJI 9,840 is now my take profits.The stock market is increasingly breaking support and resistance in the night session.  Asia is calling the shots now.  This time the market simply ran out of time to complete it's wave structure, so instead it sub-divided lower in tune with the I1. 

6/29 pre-open

When SP Sep futures declined below 1069 that was my cue of a downside breakout.  Shorted 4% SP futures at 1068.25.  SPX is now ready to challenge the 1040 support.  The count is that Minute wave i is still in progress.

Monday, June 28, 2010

6/28 Daily Commentary

Here is a chart of SPY showing the trendline I'm watching.  The evening session did not violate it:

I've been waiting for this correction to complete since Thursday morning.  Looking at the I1 chart there is not much time until the bottom arrives (4 trading sessions).  Currently only 2% SDS.  I'll wait for any decline from here (SP futures < 1069) to signal the short.  However, it was an extremely quiet market today, so it could be set for the pop upward I have been waiting for.

My old buddy, the DJI 5-minute, 380-unit M/A is closing in on the top of the triangle and should reach it around noon tomorrow.  Thus, if the market is not rallying strongly by noon I will short the market and will look for a weak rally touching this M/A to be my cue. 


6/28 2:30

SPX triangle first trouble sign is a break of the upsloping trendline.

6/28 1:50

This is the second-hardest thing to do in the markets:  wait.  The hardest thing to do is to lose money.  I STILL think we get rally.  If I am wrong then I need to wait for 10,079 to short again.  I1 is down and is pushing on prices.  However, countertrend moves come in spasms, so I am looking for a bullish spasm.  It will not last long,  150 points in a couple of hours kind of move.  A lot of triangles resolve in this type of spasmodic breakout.

6/28 12:25

Sold 2% SDS at 34.56 as the rally could extend to 10,320.  I remain 2% SDS.

6/25 noon

Took profit in DZZ at 12:00 price 10.85.
IF the DJI exceeds 10,260 it will validate the count since last week, that Minuette c of Minute ii of Minor 3 is in progress and the Minute ii has been in progress since Thursday AM. I think this c will itself be a Sub-Minuette zigzag.  Once this is out of the way then I1 should swiftly take hold for a 3rd of a 3rd (this being Minute iii of Minor 3).  Support will be almost 500 points down, at 9800.

President Obama voiced his concerns about the speed of budget cuts in a letter to G20 leaders last week, while Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the BBC that Europe should focus on growth as well as cutting spending.

6/28 11:00

I was looking at a photo of Obama, Merkel, and Osborne and was struck with how little our president has in common with them.  Osborne was swept in by UK revulsion over the fiscal calamity that adopting US-style QE and deficit spending has brought upon them.  Merkel represents a country whose citizens are in an uproar over the use of the German industrial cash machine to support socialist doctrine elsewhere in Europe.  As they stood looking at each other I imagine Merkel thinking "This man is telling me that his planet is made of green cheese".  Merkel will cut spending to the bone, so will Osborne.  They know that Obama will not, but they have to make pretty-talk.  G-20 is no longer a stalking horse for the US.  Indeed, it is the other way around, as the US seeks to foster the impression that they are a major player in a world fragmenting into self-interests having nothing to do with US doctrine.
 Anyway, gold tested all-time highs and fell back hard.  Stocks on their way to 10,260.  Once stocks peak then gold should fall like lead.

6/28 10:30

Stocks still look like moving higher. It will take new low in DJI to force me to go beyond my current 4% SDS.
Gold knocking on all-time highs.  GLD 123.65 is my stop for my DZZ short gold position.  DZZ down 12c from my buy point.

6/28 pre-open

Income number disappointed a bit.  G-20 hot air.  SP futures now at support, breaking 1072 will put uptrend in jeopardy.  Still expecting a pop higher this morning.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

6/25 Weekly Commentary

I shorted gold 2% of capital via DZZ on ARCA at 10.52.  Gold has rallied to within crying distance of it's all-time high at a time when trader sentiment is ravenously bullish.  It's forward sentiment measure (it's I1 equivalent) is set for a decline into early July. 

Just to get perspective on where we are on the large scale I present a series of charts from 2007 on. C1,2,etc are Circle1,2,etc. Currently we are in Minute ii of Minor 3 of Intermediate 1 of Primary 3.

I hold 4% SDS. I hope for a pop Monday morning to 10,260 to increase my short position.

Friday, June 25, 2010

6/25 1:40

Another 3% SDS when DJI hits 10,260

6/25 1:36

Bought another 2% SDS 34.20

6/25 1:00

By a stretch of logic I got a 5 in SPX and XMI:


6/25 12:15

Still waiting on a rally to increase the short exposure.  In the meantime, let's ramble...
Double dip is now becoming the consensus amongst economists (data hogs). Real economists taking the long view know the score, there will not be a double bottom next year but a brand new low. Even being proven wrong at every turn the data hogs will still hold the shaken confidence of the brokers, bureaucrats, and masses because, hey, they have numbers to back them up. Hey, hey, hey! Good, bad, or indifferent they have numbers. Now that we have created a mechanical model for the economy we will never shake it off, at least for another 4 years, when things get to the point that everyone is desperate for an alternative (Austrian) economic model. Too late, sorry...even Keynes is rolling over in his grave, having justified unlimited government debt and involvement in the name of "pump priming". His theory stated that the good times will run budget surpluses to reduce the debt (but he had to know in his own mind the foolishness of that postulate).  After Keynes came the "just a little inflation" economists, goosing the monetary base.  Then came Greenspan with the eternal now interest rate (negative real rates forever).  Finally, we have Bernanke, the devil's apprentice (inventing new ways to heat hell to the boiling point).  He has made QE gadgets the worldwide norm.  How will the central banks ever get rid of the garbage on their balance sheets?
We have created an asylum, where the patients have infected the doctors to convince the patients that outside the building are the crazy people.  The original patients were the depression-scarred voters and the asylum slowly became the Bedlam of today. 

6/25 11:30

The Nasdaq has the clearest view of the overall condition of the stock market.  DJI, SPX, XMI are all locked in 3-wave chops down.

6/25 11:05

Another 3-wave decline to latest low.  This is not how impulses work.  Just sucking in shorts here.  Exited 1% SDS at 35.03.

6/25 11:00

Bought 1% SDS 35.09.

6/25 10:45

I did not increase my short position on latest low.  If XMI takes out latest low by 1 tick I will.  1113.53. The stabs downward have been 3 wave choppy moves, not a single impulse.

6/25 10:35

Putting in order to buy 5% TLT at 97.35.  It's a long way from here but if the stock rally runs this will be a good entry point.

6/25 9:45

The stock market is really struggling to pick itself up off of the mat.  To a chart reader this does not look like a point where a 150-point rally will ensue, it looks like a place to increase shorts.  If the DJI takes out yesterday's low by 17 points I'll increase shorts.  Otherwise I'll await the rally.

6/25 pre-open

Currently 2% SDS and 5% TLT.
Expecting a rally to carry to 1090 - 1095 today

Equivalent level in DJI is about 10,300

Thursday, June 24, 2010

6/24 Daily Commentary

The stock market should have completed it's first 5-wave since Monday's high.  Count is i circle of 3 or (3). i circle is labelled m1 on the chart.

In case I'm wrong I hold a 2% SDS position, but hope to get a larger position at better price tomorrow. The raw and longer-term I1 sell signals are in effect until 7/5.

6/24 2:30

I bought a small position in SDS rather than waiting for the expected upside target because it is possible (not probable) that there will be an extension of the 5-wave down. 

6/24 2:00

Bought 2% SDS at 34.09
Looking to buy SDS at DJI 10,320.

6/24 1:00

I have stop-losses in place on my trades, but sometimes I don't post them if they are far away.  My Trade History is exemplary not just because I have a hot hand at the moment but because I use stops as well as process.  Currently the longer-term stop is DJI 12-day M/A.  As a trend change indicator I use the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A +/- 1.2% plus 10 points.  However on many trades my stops are much closer.  The 15-minute, 54-unit M/A and the SP futures 30-minute M/A that I've used countless times are not only entry and exit points but are stops as well, if prices move a fixed percentage beyond them.
While I'm waiting on the stock and silver markets to move I want to describe the psychology of trading (one more time).  Each person has to learn themselves what style fits their personality.  Mine has evolved over decades into a philosophy of living.  My lifestyle is very simple, from foods to home to vehicle to the clothes that I wear.  I live simple and I love simple.  The reason is that if I don't need money or approval then I am not psychologically invested in any trade.  It's not that I don't care but that I don't need.  I don't need approval of others or the next payment on my Ferrari; nothing gets in the way of the decision of what and when to make a trade.  If I need to exit I exit, at a gain or loss, it really doesn't matter. The irony is that I'll stack my trading history with anybody's because I don't need to do so. 
This blog is a trading journal and is an accurate record of my trading activity, nothing more and nothing less.  The fact that I1 is a strategic part of my thought process or that I have made money in years past or I consistently make money is not relevant to the here and now of the trading world.  The process is the key and I protect the process with my lifestyle.  The process includes stops before each trade is made. 
One more point, I have almost my entire net worth in my trading accounts, so I'm don't diversify.  I keep profits made in these accounts and only withdraw small living expenses.  I don't owe money on anything.

6/24 noon

It appears that i of (i) of 3 of (3) is complete.  Awaiting rally to about 10,300.

6/24 10:55

Covered 4% futures at 1073.5

6/24 10:45

Sold 3% SDS at 34.53

6/24 10:40

Stocks on 5th of 5th from the high Monday.  Any trading profits should be taken on new low.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

6/23 Daily Commentary

Reclassified wave count to correspond with Nasdaq and SPX as 4th wave down complete.  I bought 3% SDS after the close at 33.75.  The stock market missed my shorting point on the rally of 10,274.  The DJI fell beyond the outer range 1.2%, thus issuing a sell signal.   Here is the lastest count:

Currently short 4% SP Sep futures, long 3% SDS, long 5% TLT.  It looks like the market is ready for the next leg down.  Here is the 10-minute futures M/A which guides a short-term trending market:

The next larger unit of trend is the 30-minute:

6/23 3:45

If market allows it I'll buy 3% SDS at DJI 10,366.

6/23 3:30

Sold the 2% SDS at 33.82 for a gain. Will re-enter on DJI 10,261

6/23 2:30

OK, here goes the rally.  Will be shorting more at DJI 10,374.

6/23 2:20

Bought 2% SDS on FOMC volatility at 33.66.

6/23 1:55

Putting in order to buy 2% SDS when DJI hits 10,377.

6/23 11:40

The stock market has gone doggo until the FOMC announcement.  I'm exiting the DXD I bought earlier for a small gain until after 2:15.

6/23 10:00

I bought 2% DXD at 28.14 when DJI went below 10,270.  I am shifting to the Nasdaq wave count which counts the triangle yesterday as wave 2 and yesterday's decline as wave 3, with today being an extension.
I haven't read anything about an unusual aspect of yesterday's trading.  The day before FOMC announcement has been a very good day to pull on bull trades, but yesterday traded down after the first half-hour.  FOMC days are traditionally choppy and not worth trading, so not going in big until after 2:15.
Small-caps and to a lesser extent Nasdaq are weaker than blue chips.  Even the SPX. FOMC
As if I needed it, I got further confirmation of the downwave by DJI going below 10,285.  This means that the prior buy signal associated with this M/A is officially nullified.  10,400 is my target but I will nibble short prior to that.

6/23 9:40

A break of DJI 10,270 gets me back short.

6/23 9:30

Well, today's the FOMC meeting day.  Now that the Fed has spent all it's money not many people care what they do. Reminds me of some women I know.  Anyway, I expect some kick up today.  Just in case I'll use the 10-minute, 80-unit M/A SP futures -.3% as a way back in on the short side in case the rally doesn't generate.  The critical support is still at 10,285 so a break of yesterday's low by DJI below 10,270 will suck me in.
The important thing is that I1 is down and a 5-wave down has occurred.  I look for a rally all the way back to the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A.
Currently short 4% SP Sep futures and long 5% TLT.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

6/22 Daily Commentary

Expecting a bounce-back after a completed 5-wave down near the close.  This is i of (i) of 3 of (3).

The 5-minute, 380-unit M/A is my key for confirmation of trend reversal.  10,285 is the flash point.  The orthodox low of wave i was 10,288 but the market sucked in dumb shorts by a slightly lower low to 10,284 before recovering at the close.  10,284 does not constitute confirmation as it occurred in the closing minutes and was part of the normal market shenanigans.  Therefore a bounce-back can occur all the way back up to the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A which I will expect tomorrow.

Had a good day with both bonds and short stock ETFs and futures.  Currently short 4% SP Sep futures @ 1114 and long 5% TLT @ 96.50.  Had 2 day-trades profitable, with SDS taking almost the entire range.
Bonds are very close to break-out of a much larger triangle and are headed higher based on the extent of their coil:

By the way, EWI count has been modified to match my count.  It seems to be the universal opinion that wave 3 will begin with a bang.  We'll see, I am open to the possibility.  The existence of an entrenched support level at 9800 will delay a breakdown and with only 7 market days remaining a likely scenario for my suspicious mind is that the DJI takes out 9800 by a hundred and reverses on July 5.  Not that I'm paranoid but taking out lows with reversal is a money-maker.  And, gosh, there aren't any high-frequency trading programs that push big blocks to produce this effect, are there?  That might be unethical...Even the DJI can be influenced by enough manipulation.

6/22 3:40

Sold 3% SDS 33.50.  Wave i of (i) of 3 complete.

6/22 3:25

Looks like 1 more low to complete the 5th.  Flash point 10,285 for critical support.

6/22 3:00

5-wave down appears complete.  Critical support will only be broken at M/A -1.25% or 10,285.  Sold QID at 17.17.  Will get more short past 10,285.

6/22 2:40

Confirmation of downside breakout is XMI < 1146 and TLT > 98.23

6/22 1:40

Error in count on the last post.  Current triangle is:

6/22 1:30

We'll see if the indices have coiled enough to overcome the critical resistance M/A:

6/22 12:35

Stock market forming a triangle 4th wave. 
I'll try and short on the e wave.

6/22 11:45

Will increase shorts at SPX 1118.80:

6/22 10:00

The rally looks like a completed abc.  SPX declining through 1115 will confirm.

6/22 9:50

Bought 3% SDS 32.18.  Rally looks done.

6/22 9:45

Targeting 5% SDS SPX 1119.50

6/22 8:30

Here is why I want to hold off going any further short:

If DJI can decline below this M/A by 1.25% then I'll increase shorts.  Otherwise I await a rally.

6/22 pre-open

Shorted 4% September futures 1114.  I was not able to buy short ETFs because the price was hit after 8PM.
Bought 2% QID 16.96 just now.
Here is a perspective on the upcoming decline into 7/5.  DJI 9800 has been solid support for 1 year.  During that time the DJI has traced out a head and shoulders.  The bulls are betting that a decline to 9800 is a correction, the bears that it will fall and substantial new lows made.  The bears thought that 9800 was going to fall several weeks ago, instead we had rally.  Now 9800 is 660 points away.  7/5 is only 9 market days away and that is about the right amount of move for a normal swift decline, .7% per day.
Looking at I1 I find it more probable that the market will break key support after 8/1 than before.  However, I don't have to be right on this point.  I hold short through 7/5.  If the market breaks 9800 during this period then I keep a portion short because the chart readers will be selling.  If not, then I stand aside during the rising I1 until after 8/1, then monitor for the break of the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A.  Here is the I1 chart:

Monday, June 21, 2010

6/21 Daily Commentary

The rule for I1 is to buy/sell late in the day or at the close of the turn date OR get in at an extreme.  It turns out the extreme was 10,600, not the hail-Mary 10,650 that I put in so that didn't go.
This afternoon did not give much opportunity to get a counter-trend pop to sell.  Near the close the DJI hit it's 5-minute, 380-unit M/A, kinda like stepping on a third rail of energy.  It started to rally off of it, but my count is a completed 5-wave down and the bottom at critical support so I believe that the rally has more to go.  Shifting to futures methods to determine entry price for a short stock position.
The 1-minute futures chart shows a 5-wave up complete off of the late low. 

Futures at 1114 would be a good entry, just below the wave i low. 

6/21 3:45

Market trading heavily.  Fallen all the way to the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A.  This is my "critical support".  It would be crazy for me to short here. I count 5 down from today's high.  I am long bonds.

6/21 3:20

Looks like this down wave has ended.  Look to short a rally into the close.

6/21 3:10

Dang it, I hate rules...I can still hope that the market will give me a pop into the close but not nearly the absolute level that I was hoping for earlier.  Ah well, at least I've got the bonds...

6/21 2:15

This 5-wave counts complete.  Looking for a rally into the close in a 3-wave.

6/21 1:40

The stock market in now in a 5-wave down, having declined beneath the 3rd wave 10,505 bottom.  So I'll look to sell at either the 10-minute M/A or 10,525.  Next support at SPX 1118.60.

6/21 1:30

DJI found support at 10,505.  I expect a small rally from here.   TLT up a point from my buy.  Time to start thinking about short points.  Here is a gadget I use when I'm trying to catch a short-term draft.  The 10-minute futures M/A is used with a .3% break.  So, we already have a downside break of this M/A. On the way back up, I'll try to catch it right at the M/A.

6/21 12:15

Here is the current count:

6/21 noon

Cash stock indices also count complete, but I1 is up until the close.  My tactic is to use futures and cash short-term M/As until late afternoon.  Bonds are up from my pre-open buy.
When splashy news occurs over the weekend frequently the market peaks early.  That's why the bonds, but I1deserves to be played according to it's rules, which are into the close.
Support is at 10,505.  If it goes below 10,465 then I1 is being overridden by the realization that the splashy yuan news is totally irrelevent.

6/21 10:00

Entered order to buy 5% SDS when DJI reaches 10,659.  I'm long bonds at about these prices.

6/21 9:05

A lot of pre-open posts, but the yuan news popped all of the markets.  The initial entry into a short is via a long bond position.  TLT was down sharply to 29-day M/A.  It is in a triangle which should be a continuation of the rally with the expected decline in stocks.
Although I want to keep my powder dry until this afternoon, the new backdrop means the peak in enthusiasm may have occurred overnight.  Bonds reacted downward so I bought bonds as a proxy for short stocks because the reacted to support.  The actual economic impact of this tiny revaluation is nil, but it was politically adept.  

As far as stocks go I'm looking at the outer edge of resistance at 10,625-10,650 so I can go short on the slight chance that the market rallies that high.  Other than that I want to wait for I1 to fulfill it's peak this afternoon.

6/21 8:47

Bought 5% TLT on ARCA 97.50

6/21 pre-open

I will short 2% SDS in ARCA if SP futures hit 1127.   I count wave (v) of C of 2 complete at the 1130 SP futures high.  The yuan story is a perfect cover for a top.

I will short another 5-10% later in the day.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

6/19 Weekly Commentary

The stock market has stalled above short-term support.  Wave 4 continues, even though I thought it finished Friday.  One more day for the last push. 

Our community fund-raiser happens Sunday so I'll be able to focus on the markets starting Monday.  Thanks for your patience.