Friday, July 1, 2011

7/1 pre-open

I generated the daily technical composite yesterday at 7:20pm EDT.  Even with yesterday's big rally the composite was not able to retreat to neutral.  This caused me to exit the NQ short and sell 2% SDS and 2% QID.  I'm currently 4%DXD, 2%SDS, and 3%EUO.  Overnight the 15-minute M/A for NQ futures climbed to the current trading range.  So even if I'm wrong about a final pop today I have a re-entry for NQ short nearby.  The green line is the 82-unit M/A.  10 points below is the breakdown.
I'll be shorting on a pop to 2330.
SP, DJ, and NQ futures are at 50-day M/A resistance, so what rally can be mustered should be nominal and short-lived.
Gold and silver broke down overnight.  I should have shorted yesterday but instead took position long dollar.  If stocks break down then precious metals should as well.
The dollar bottom looks like it is in.  It did not break above it's 10-minute M/A by more than .2% (16 ticks) last night so initial confirmation is not in.  I'm using dollar as a primary confirmation for stock trend change.

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