Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Animal Spirit Forecasts

This blog is superceded by the Animal Spirit Forecasts website, which includes a forum for subscribers.

Animal Spirit Forecasts is about gauging sentiment forward in time. This forecasting methodology is based on a data source which I devised starting 20 years ago. It began with research into correlations between environment and human behavior as measured in the financial markets. What began as research became conviction and then realization. I started making money with this data source 10 years ago and have been refining the analysis and improving returns ever since. The newsletter tracks my actual trades in the stock market, precious metals, and currencies (Euro and dollar).

Using the tools detailed below every trade that I have made since March, 2010 has been recorded (Trades Link) and the following $100,000 account record compiled (blue line below).

Please observe the amazingly small drawdowns (periods of negative account build) due to small positions and being consistently on the right side of the market.  This is due to my data sources described below.

As a subscriber you will have access to my current positions in an Excel spreadsheet on the website in a subscriber-only forum.

The keys to my success are:

1) an index of environmental data and solar-lunar cycles that I dub I1
2) technical composite indexes using daily and weekly data.

The following links are learning tools for the data series that use day-in and day-out:

I1 for Investors

Learn about I1 and it's trading rules

To download I1 history for your own research into this powerful new data source:

I use one of the components of I1 to time trades within the longer I1 moves.  This component is a variable monthly cycle calculated from various solar and lunar relationships.  This short-term timing component helps me pinpoint tradeable moves within longer trends.  This has it's own rule set.

I also use a daily technical composite for the stock market which I have found very useful when it reaches extremes.  It and it's rule set is at:

There are also similar forward gauges for precious metals, bonds, dollar, and crude.
Precious metals:


All of the posts prior to the subscription cutover are available as well as the Excel spreadsheet of every trade that I have posted (and made in my own accounts, delayed by 2 weeks).

I invite you to investigate the accuracy of these data sources which you will find nowhere else.

I offer a 1-week trial if you request it by emailing

To subscribe you must provide your e-mail address or I will not know where to e-mail the newsletter and intraday updates.

Payment is $15 per month, payable :

1) Use your bank's bill payment system to automatically send a check each month or each year to the address below. Include your e-mail address in the notes section.

2) Use Paypal to send a check or cash each month or annually to If the e-mail address that you want the Forecasts sent to is different than your Paypal id then include the e-mail address in the notes section.

3) The old fashioned way is to mail a check, cash, silver, or gold to the address below. Again, I need to know your e-mail address.

4) Use the above to snatch the yearly rate of $140, save dollars, and avoid hassle.

When using Paypal no fees are charged if you select the "Personal" tab, so please use this option.

When sending payments or love letters:

Animal Spirit Forecasts
PO Box 797
Pie Town, NM 87827

The mail does not deliver to the house so I drive into town several times a week to pick up mail. I won't be very quick to stop your e-mails so if you are a few days late it's OK.

What you will receive are:

Daily Commentary - due to the timing of the various data sources this will be e-mailed twice, once shortly after market close and again with complete data 7:30pm, while ARCA trading is still going on.

Intraday Commentary - trades arising out of the strategy in the Daily Commentary as well as stops and new situations

Weekly Commentary - e-mailed Saturday with economic issues, upcoming trades, longer-term views on stock markets, precious metals, bonds, and currencies. The oil market is coming out of period where it has been dominated by international political events, so I'll be picking up my commentary and trades on the oil market as well.

I'll respond to e-mails sent to and will also respond to comments on the blog,

I thank all of the people that have followed this blog in the past year and 3 months. I offer a very low subscription rate until the end of the year and grandfather each and every one of you that subscribes at the current rate for 3 years (who knows what prices will be then, there could be a discount).


  1. hey steve congrats on starting the paid service... since you are open to alt payment methods, you should consider accepting (the granddaddy, backed by gold) and/or (backed by USD)... i'm not a fan of bitcoin yet...


  2. shabs, just mail gold!

  3. Steve,

    Has there been a delay with tonight's commentary? No worries at all if there is. I just want to make sure I'm on the list.


  4. There was a delay last night. Once a month I travel to Albuquerque and I get home a bit late.

  5. Steve asked to comment on format: I noticed Google Docs link doesn't open on my mobile (blackberry) while the blog link worked perfectly on BB for months. Was just wondering if a regular html email service (all content, text and image, in the body of the message) wouldn't be better. Apart that, I am glad I subscribed for a year and I like the style. Thanks Steve.

  6. Steve, thanks for looking already for a mobile device solution- great responsiveness!!
    Carl V.

  7. I'll have attachments working, hopefully tomorrow. The avoidance of links is the only solution I can see to mobile access.

  8. Really impressed so far, Steve. Concise and insightful charts, explanations and commentary; updates several times a day. Superb timing for new subscribers with the recent downdraft.

  9. Just returned from a 3 week road trip, so I signed up today. Very impressed so far. I received my first emails within minutes of my signing up (thru paypal). The content of the weekly report is well organized and very thorough. I've received a couple of intraday reports already (since signing up just a couple hours ago!) and they're very timely.

    This is a great service! Not only is Steve's sentiment indicator unique and provides an uncannily accurate forecast of future market direction, but his feel for intraday market movements is accurate as well. Following Steve's blog for the past year, I've found that the tools that Steve has developed (his sentiment indicator and technical composite, as well as his use of MA envelopes) have been very useful in my own trading. As useful as the blog has been, the new service is a quantum leap forward because it's now a complete package, organized, timely, and automatic--it all just shows up in my email inbox. It's also an incredible bargain!