Friday, July 1, 2011

7/1 Daily Commentary

I wanted to get out the Daily early.  When all of the market date is available I'll update the post with the daily technical composite and other markets.
When the daily technical composite registers a strong buy, as it did 13 trading days ago, everything else takes a back seat.  I1 takes a back seat to a rally from 2 weeks of congestion on a +24 buy signal in the daily technical composite.  I was disappointed that yesterday's rally did not take more out of the sails of the momentum, taking it only from +10 to +6.  As stated then I expected today to be another up day to complete the work of neutralizing the oversold condition.  I nibbled at NQ shorts today but got out with tiny losses twice because the count kept extending.  I am short now from 2357.50.
I have kept positions small until I see the composite this evening.  I'll post it 7:30EDT in time for ARCA.  If the composite declines below +4, which I expect, then I'll add more short ETFs.  The combination of an oversold condition, pre-holiday with light trade, and end-of-quarter.
The market completed it's abc from last week's lows this afternoon.  SP futures count it best.  I have to use futures because most of this rally happened overnight.  Cash counts with huge opening moves don't make sense in a strong trending environment. 

Zeroing in on wave (v) the final wave in the abc shows that all waves are complete.
In spite of the huge rally over the past 2 days the dollar has stayed above the bottom made on Wednesday.  I consider this important market information.

No comments:

Post a Comment