7/1 1:30am

I covered ND short when the daily technical composite indicated that technical momentum remained.  I count today's rally as a wave iii out of a triangle and the congestion since as wave iv.  I'll go short again on a final spike that will exhaust the technical momentum.

6/30 Daily Commentary

Today's rally did not neutralize the signal, bringing the technical composite only down to +6. This tells me that there will probably be carry-over into the morning. Consequently, I covered by NQ short at 2320 for a loss of 7.75 points. Also I sold 2% QID and 2% SDS in ARCA.

The technical composite is saying that I will short again tomorrow. While disappointed, this is part of the trade.  On the unexpected decline through the ND 15-minute, 82-minute M/A less 10 points I'll short NQ again.

I have the raw data for I1, the short-term timing component, the PM1 precious metals gauge, the US1 bonds gauge, the dollar gauge, and crude gauge in an Excel spreadsheet forward for next 60 days at this link.

I've been sitting on my hands over the past 12 sessions after covering shorts near the lows and I was eager to short this market (probably a little too eager).

Today played out as a strong rally with technical momentum, on a buy signal in the daily technical composite.  Yesterday I was looking for a spike today strong enough to dissipate the technical strength to neutral.  Today I bought 3% DXD, 2% SDS, 2% QID, and 1% EUO.  I also shorted NQ futures at 2312.25 and have a stop at 2324.25.  I bought 2% SDS at the close yesterday to get a toe-hold position.

The key is the short-term timing component of I1. The following chart removes the 8 day lead for simple comparison with price. As can be seen yesterday was the signal day for this component, declining below 10.5.




Here is the I1 with the 8-day lead removed:

However, the technical condition of the stock market is sufficiently strong to delay the signal until the daily technical composite declines to +4 or lower. 

I believe the dollar low is in.  When the stock market turns then the dollar will rally. 

6/30 3:50

Bought 2% DXD at 17.14
Went short 1% NQ again at 2321.50, stop 2324

6/30 3:40

SPX high 1321.13.  SPX is testing this high.  I stopped out of NQ at 2322.25 and am looking for another short entry.  This rally will turn the tech composite neutral, so at the close is the time to short.

6/30 1:15

There was a data error in my futures data source, which showed a blip to 2323 for NQ futures, but the actual high was 2322 and did not violate my original stop.   The market spiked to a higher level than I thought was necessary to finish the process of neutralizing the oversold condition of the last 2 months, but that's what markets do they go beyond what's necessary.  The rest of the day should be milling around at a high level.  I'll post the Daily as soon as the technical composite is generated.
The short-term timing component plus 8-day lead fell below 10.5 today, indicating yesterday was top day.  However, the technical composite still had not fallen to a +4 to indicate that the technical momentum was used up.  It should do so today.
I'm altering the charting program for the short-term timing display to allow for an input of the number of lead days.  That way the chart as displayed will reflect the 8-day lead aligned directly with prices.