Friday, May 21, 2010

5/21 2:30

Market still marking time distributing stock to buyers. We should have another stab in the dark upward.  We should have a decent bounce off of the 220-day:

If SPX breaks 1072 then I will have to short 2%.

The reform bill puts to lie that you can buy ALL the politicians in Washington.  Wall Street pushes legions of lobbyists in the beltway and got some of the hard bark removed.  It will be easy, for example, Goldman Sachs to re-establish itself as an investment bank instead of a (laughable) commercial bank as it is now.  That will side-step most of the annoyance.  The requirement to put as many derivatives as possible through clearinghouses will make some of the products economically unviable (either through disclosing actual bid/ask or by adding the clearing cost into the product package).  So, the world will shrink that way.  Also, banks will have a harder time maintaining a derivatives profit center and some will stop trying.  The world will shrink that way, too.   Most of the really clever cheats that Goldman engages in will go on as before.  The beltway does not have the background to understand Goldman's business model(s).  However, the banks are not as gifted with talent as Goldman and Morgan and will find it harder to wiggle out of the briar patch.  Good, greed and stupidity do not flatter each other.  The banks chased after the investment houses and got taken to the cleaners.  We transferred their debt to our collective balance sheet and did not go after the luscious past bonuses paid (or even the current ones during the crisis).   This kind of stupid shark I don't need.

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