I expect market to hold these levels today, but SP futures 1068 must hold.
I've been working on a systematic method of determining which I1 moves will yield strong trends. The software uses I1 and some of it's components individually with historical thresholds. I have isolated 95% probability signals for components if they can remain above/below threshold over time. That is, if a component can remain above a bullish threshold for a prolonged period or below a bearish threshold for a prolonged period then this generates an individual signal. The requirement is that there must be 95% correlation with the historical data in order for a component to be included within the signal generator. It looks promising but will require another week's work. Hopefully the Weekly Commentary...
Steve
ReplyDeleteI find it interesting that when there is fresh money moving into the markets, Mondays are up days and the trend is up and when money is leaving the markets Mondays are down days and the markets move down. I know this is not always the case but a trend I have noticed over the last year or so. Do you use mutual fund in flows and out flows in your market analysis to help predict trend?
The fund inflows are a contrary indicator. I carry the data in my database but don't include them in the weekly technical composite.
ReplyDeleteMonday's reflect world market sentiment more than other days. They also give the puppetmasters their best shot to manipulative spec sentiment.