5/24 Daily Commentary

Today was I1 sell date for decline through 6/8.  Entered this afternoon 2% SDS average 35.16.

Weakness in the final hour carried into the futures evening session.  Would like to expand short beyond 2% on any strength, but right now the SP futures are .75% lower than the close.  (SDS is up 1.5% from it's close).  This is a breakdown from the futures rectangle over the last 2 days:

The obvious place to short is a bounce back to 1070, which I will try to do.

Wave (iv) appears complete.  Wave (v) of 1 of (3) is in progress.

Reposting commentary on current software project to identify high-probability extended trades using time at elevated or depressed levels for I1 and sub-components:

I've been working on a systematic method of determining which I1 moves will yield strong trends.  I have noticed that I1 components and indeed the I1 itself at times have stayed in elevated or depressed levels for periods longer than the average "cycle" time. By focusing on this time factor and using multiple components a significant sample of time-based signals can yield results that I can stake my capital on. When multiple signals are firing then the odds go up.

The software uses I1 and some of it's components individually with historical thresholds. I have isolated 95% probability signals for components if they can remain above/below threshold over time. That is, if a component can remain above a bullish threshold for a prolonged period or below a bearish threshold for a prolonged period then this generates an individual signal. The requirement is that there must be 95% correlation win/loss with the historical data in order for a component to be included within the signal generator.

According to my preliminary results we are in such a bearish period until July 8.