1/19 Daily Commentary

Came in today with 4% SSO, having sold 2% yesterday near the close.  The stock market marched downward all day.  The following chart shows my 2 entry points today, the first (green line) was sold out for no loss when a 5 down developed.  The second (blue line) stuck and I bought 4% in the final hour at 79.66.  So I'm 8% SSO.

This should be the bottom of the wave 4 I've been expecting.
Those of you reading this blog know I've been keeping in and out of long dollar or short Euro.  Today this trade stuck and I made money shorting Euro using a 1-minute, 67-unit M/A and 157-unit M/A.  I'm currently out waiting on a 20-cent break of the 15-minute, 90-unit M/A (green line) currently at 134.55, giving a trigger at 134.35.  I have a positive sentiment gauge for the dollar so I'm using the currency/stock market correlation to play opposite ends of the risk spectrum. 

I'm short gold from 1372.40, which I believe is on the cusp of a larger decline.  Breaking 1366.40 basis Feb futures should kick the legs out from under it. 
Caveat:  I1 is up which is bullish for all risk assets, Euro included.  I'm offsetting long stocks with these other markets.
Here is the I1 for the next 3 months:
20110119 11.4923


20110120 13.90587

20110121 16.33031

20110124 18.86588

20110125 21.5293

20110126 23.26398

20110127 24.94553

20110128 26.78996

20110131 27.08342

20110201 28.07677

20110202 28.24126

20110203 28.64861

20110204 29.44478

20110207 30.08323

20110208 30.98431

20110209 31.61372

20110210 32.7958

20110211 34.23365

20110214 37.53806

20110215 40.75786

20110216 43.77328

20110217 47.36712

20110218 50.57693

20110221 52.17321

20110222 52.59504

20110223 52.23759

20110224 52.12646

20110225 52.30561

20110228 50.78321

20110301 49.95083

20110302 48.75886

20110303 48.7545

20110304 48.60954

20110307 48.91933

20110308 50.65648

20110309 53.18327

20110310 55.83762

20110311 58.13648

20110314 61.86496

20110315 65.04965

20110316 68.23689

20110317 71.06565

20110318 74.00252

20110321 78.1513

20110322 81.3552

20110323 84.10808

20110324 85.52601

20110325 86.05031

20110328 84.2088

20110329 80.85115

20110330 77.50088

20110331 74.00951

20110401 71.06763

20110404 69.29059

20110405 68.73553

20110406 68.67549

20110407 69.01423

20110408 69.86341

20110411 71.74323

20110412 72.75928