1/20 Daily Commentary

My wife and I were in Socorro today getting tests and shopping.  Currently short gold futures, long 8% SSO.  Since I was going to be in the world today I decided to limit my futures activity by placing extremely tight stops on NQ futures and Euro futures overnight.  These were hit with nominal loss.
I still want to go short Euro or long dollar.  The criteria in each market are similar.  First the dollar rallied to the upper envelope of the first hourly M/A, the 91-hour, which has an envelope of 23 cents at current levels.

Even a tick beyond the 79.35 high will confirm a run to first resistance at 80.
Conversely, Euro declined to just below it's primary hourly M/A, the 73 hour, with an envelope of 61 ticks at current levels, yielding a 133.53 trigger at present.

The large topping/basing process in currencies has allowed these hourly M/As to catch up.  The dollar will pull it's trigger first so I'll key off of that and use the Euro as confirmation.
The stock market declined to 45 points within the critical support envelope, a common stopping level.
Yesterday's decline was murky in blue chips but plain in S&P.  Today's rally was countable in S&P but was plain in the XMI (5 up). 

With I1 up I will only part company with stocks when DJI critical support breaks, currently at 11,645.
I'm shorting gold due to it's clear 3rd of 3rd wave count.  I posted in the past that precious metals have 2 different sentiment gauges that usually agree.  The current juncture has different bottom dates.  I normally favor the new (improved) flavor but the original has a decline into February and with the wave count I am using it.

I have not been posting any economic commentary since I1 turned up.  I have to function in an Alice-in-Wonderland environment with magic carpet levitation of the stock and commodities markets.  When I am ready to short the stock market I'll return to my normal, pithy self.