My question is about I1. To be able to forecast I1 a year into the future is quite amazing. The only things that I can think of that would allow you to make a forecast that far into the future with the accuracy you're having would be cycles and/or the movements of the planets. My question was whether your I1 takes into consideration planetary motion.
Hi pima I can only forecast 3 months forward accurately. The 2010 forecast was made using extrapolations beyond 3 months. I do make heavy use of solar/lunar cycles and eclipses. Sunspots/flares are forecast data. Other data are weather related and atmosperic, including oceanic and atmospheric currents, where forecasts can be made from extrapolation. The effects of these various factors are felt months after they appear and many can be extrapolated beyond that to build a composite that, while not accurate, yields workable results. No market data is used, so no market cycles are incorporated into the forecast stream.
Thanks, Steve. And all I can say is WOW! That you have come up with such an accurate forecast based solely on natural phenomena!
It's amazing how all these natural phenomena impact human thought and feelings. And yet it shouldn't be surprising, really. We are of the earth and part of these natural systems, so certainly their movements must affect us.
Congratulations on putting all these systems together into something that forecasts human social mood so accurately!
One other question: Do you look at planetary movements other than sun and moon, such as Mars, Venus, etc. (I am sure you are aware of attempts by many--Gann was one who did this, I believe--to use astrological principles to attempt to forecast the markets.)
Basically it's a sun/moon program with long trends as natural phenomenon. I don't want to include other astrological events, but perhaps their reflection on natural events is what I perceive. I don't want to speak to astrology because I want unequivocal and measurable results. Arch Crawford apparently uses astrology successfully. His analysis is not subjective but is intuitive. The sun/moon events have effects that are dependent on where they occur in the heliocentric and geocentric sky.
Steve, you've probably already read about it, but one of the Fed branches did a study on the corelation between geomagnetic storms and market action, and geomagnetic storms are a result of solar phenomenon as well as (to a lesser extent) planetary position.
My officemate/boss did a backtest and came to the conclusion that 8-13 (fib nums) days after a geomagnetic storm hits, the market declines.
This research transformed him from a buy-and-holder into someone who decided to sell his entire portfolio.
Based on his newfound methodology, guess what date he chose to sell everything.....August 13th :)
Hi Steve,
ReplyDeleteMy question is about I1. To be able to forecast I1 a year into the future is quite amazing. The only things that I can think of that would allow you to make a forecast that far into the future with the accuracy you're having would be cycles and/or the movements of the planets. My question was whether your I1 takes into consideration planetary motion.
Hi pima
ReplyDeleteI can only forecast 3 months forward accurately. The 2010 forecast was made using extrapolations beyond 3 months. I do make heavy use of solar/lunar cycles and eclipses. Sunspots/flares are forecast data. Other data are weather related and atmosperic, including oceanic and atmospheric currents, where forecasts can be made from extrapolation. The effects of these various factors are felt months after they appear and many can be extrapolated beyond that to build a composite that, while not accurate, yields workable results. No market data is used, so no market cycles are incorporated into the forecast stream.
The solar/lunar cycles use actual positions in the sky so that they use ephemeris data.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Steve. And all I can say is WOW! That you have come up with such an accurate forecast based solely on natural phenomena!
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing how all these natural phenomena impact human thought and feelings. And yet it shouldn't be surprising, really. We are of the earth and part of these natural systems, so certainly their movements must affect us.
Congratulations on putting all these systems together into something that forecasts human social mood so accurately!
One other question: Do you look at planetary movements other than sun and moon, such as Mars, Venus, etc. (I am sure you are aware of attempts by many--Gann was one who did this, I believe--to use astrological principles to attempt to forecast the markets.)
Basically it's a sun/moon program with long trends as natural phenomenon. I don't want to include other astrological events, but perhaps their reflection on natural events is what I perceive. I don't want to speak to astrology because I want unequivocal and measurable results. Arch Crawford apparently uses astrology successfully. His analysis is not subjective but is intuitive. The sun/moon events have effects that are dependent on where they occur in the heliocentric and geocentric sky.
ReplyDeleteSteve, you've probably already read about it, but one of the Fed branches did a study on the corelation between geomagnetic storms and market action, and geomagnetic storms are a result of solar phenomenon as well as (to a lesser extent) planetary position.
ReplyDeleteMy officemate/boss did a backtest and came to the conclusion that 8-13 (fib nums) days after a geomagnetic storm hits, the market declines.
This research transformed him from a buy-and-holder into someone who decided to sell his entire portfolio.
Based on his newfound methodology, guess what date he chose to sell everything.....August 13th :)
Thanks, Steve. I appreciate your candor.
ReplyDeleteI agree that astrological forecasts seem to depend on the accuracy of the intuition of the astrologer.
-shabs
ReplyDeleteSunspots and flares work. They alter the atmospheric currents and ionize as well. What we breathe affects what we feel and what we think.
ReplyDeleteThey alter the magnetic fields as well. Powerful.
ReplyDelete