According to my count we finished the 1st 5 wave down of Minuette5 of Minute3. The rally off of this was a abc back to the descending triangle. After hours futures are already testing today's low. In my count we are in Sub-Minuette3 of Minuette5. Washout tomorrow probably on GDP will mark a tradeable low, as Minute 3 ends.
Charles pointed out that the GDP revision will be a biggie tomorrow, with the market discounting 1.3% 2nd quarter. The economy is turning south a quarter ahead of when I estimated the stim would be coming off the rose. This will feed the Sub-Minuette 3rd wave in progress. EWI counts that yesterday's low completed the first Minuette of Minute 3. EWI changed the count to this to allow much more room for Minute 3. If this count were correct we would have had more punch. To me the rally overnight and early today looks just like a correction of Minuette 3 down and Minuette 5 is in progress to the downside.
Hi Steve.
ReplyDeleteIts just semantics, but I just want to throw this out there...
Minute 3 of Minor 3 would be here too soon I think. Minute 1 should put us under the low of the prior wave of a higher degree, and so it would seem that Minute 1 isn't over until S&P <1010.
Similarly, if we are wrapping up Minute 3 this quickly than it would seem that Minor 3 is halfway done already!
I think its just semantics and labelling, as I understand you to be as bearish as the rest of us ;)
The way I see it consistent with your description is that we just completed the 1st 5 wave down of Sub-Minuette 5 of Minuette3 of Minute 1 of Minor 3.
Again, just semantics. I think this gives us until around the I1 bottom next week to finish up Minute 1. Looking for under 1010 by then, but not sure by how much.
And thank you again Steve! You and two others are helping me make some serious money here.
Josh
Great post, Steve. The chart and your commentary makes it clear where you think we are. So far the market is following your I1 perfectly! It's fascinating to watch it unfold.
ReplyDeleteHave a great evening!
Charles
ReplyDeleteI will dump the remainder on completion of this 5 down.
Josh
I am posting an overview of the count as a frame of reference.
Glad we are making money.
Charles
ReplyDeleteI expect Minute 4 to take the form of a rectangle, but I want to reduce risk while it builds.
I agree with Josh, we are close to the end of Minor 3 Minute 1 Minuette 3 Sub-Minuette 5 Micro 3 (after GDP report), not Minute 3. This corresponds plus or minus a few days with I1. Minute 2 will be the I1 rally from 9/2 to 9/10. Then Minute 3 crash down.
ReplyDeleteI have used your site and Daneric's EW blog daily to play this Minute 1 down perfectly. I found your site at the end of Minor 1 and should have listened to you for the Minor 2 rally starting in early July, but I didn't and I lost money.
Great site, keep up the good work.
Doug