Tuesday, December 14, 2010

12/14 Daily Commentary

Gold, silver, and crude are declining in tonight's trading.  SP futures need a 30-minute close below 1231 to support a short. 

We have 5 trading session through the I1 bottom 12/21. 

Crude is also on declining sentiment:
A 90-minute chart reveals the rectangle forming with a probable downside breakout.  It has broken the
blue line which now should offer resistance.  Any trade above 89.50 will cause me to exit the short.  I'm using SCO currently. 

Another measure of crude forward sentiment paints a similarly bearish picture:
In short gold, silver, crude, and stocks are overbelieved and the Fed is seen as potent.  Through February the bulls will probably have their way and I intend to be long stocks at the close 12/21.  It isn't until early March that I can look forward to reality setting in.  If we do not start showing solid numbers for job growth and industrial production by then we will not get them and the markets will fade the Fed.  The tax bill is being passed because the reconstituted Congress starting in January will not pass this budget profligacy.  So the Fed and the House are moving before fiscal and monetary restraint kicks in.  The stock market looks six months ahead so March is about when the stim stops and the economy will have to recover on it's own.  Extended unemployment benefits and lower taxes can lend some support but the economy has been weak over the past several years with these factors in play. 

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