Monday, December 20, 2010

12/20 10:15

The dollar has broken out of a congestion to the upside.  I expect it will come back up to old high at 81.70.  Gold is up a tiny bit here against my short, but still well below my entry.   QID is up well and SDS is at break-even.   So the best money is made long the dollar, where I believe we are in a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd with the latest 3rd orginating at the 79.89 low on 12/17.  Short-term we are in a 5th wave starting at the 80.67 low last night.
I1 bottoms tomorrow so we are running out of time to break critical support, which would only occur below 11,320.


  1. Good morning, Steve.

    This market seems overripe for a significant move down to me. (extreme bullishness, put/call ratio very low, vix very low, intermediate cycle low due, etc.) But it's not happening. Maybe partly due to QE II? Maybe partly due to Christmas?

    In your experience with I1, have you ever seen the market go down when I1 was going up? I'm wondering whether we could get a move down even after I1 bottoms tomorrow. Maybe we get a big correction next month and we bottom at the end of January or into February. How likely would this be in your opinion considering what is happening to I1 over the next 6 weeks or so?

  2. I'll post some ramblings on this question...

  3. Thanks! I always enjoy reading your ramblings.