Monday, January 3, 2011

12/3 Daily Commentary

I1 peak was on Friday, but not only was it a weekend peak but a shortened session.  I stayed flat until Sunday evening and shorted NQ futures at 1228.75 at a new high but the market kept moving up to 1264 before turning.  Any new high was a 5th wave.  I stayed short because this was an initial small position but I was surprised by the extent of the rally.  Lots of optimism out there.  When SP futures broke their 15-minute M/A late in the day I bought 2% SDS at 23.29.  I'll look for a bounce to add on.  SP futures 30-minute M/A is down at 1261.25.  I expect a bounce there.

The dollar moved up today but remained in a basing pattern.  The low today at 79.23 launched a rally that so far is a 3-wave.  It can become a 5 as long as 79.34 is not broken.  Resistance at the 60-minute M/A (green line) is currently at 79.445, broken by a rally to 79.625.
The big picture M/A is at 79.86.  I'll add on if this is broken by 16 cents.
Crude rallied with stocks to a new rally high with $100 on the wags' lips.  I count wave complete and the sentiment gauge is negative into Feb. Crude found support at 91.50 but if stocks fold it will crumble.
I'll add more later tonight.

1 comment:

  1. Of note: VIX filled only remaining downside gap today, NIKKEI is thus far conforming to a bear pennant (with 2 up just completed) on the five year chart, and the YEN continues its 2+ year downtrend.