2/18 Weekly Commentary

I am in a small short stock position due to the Elliott count, which calls for declines to wave 4 support.  I1 is rising into a minor top Tuesday 2/22 going into a bottom 3/3 or 3/4.  I still expect a rally into late March from this low. Sentiment is getting extreme and my weekly technical composite is on a sell -10.  So, I tiptoed into 2% SDS at 20.77, it closing at 20.69. 

Here is the current I1 chart:

Here is one of the components of I1, a solar-lunar cycle series which peaked Thursday:

Bonds have given a buy signal this week on both the 10-year and 30-year M/As.  Here is the 30-year:

Here is the I1 going through the March top.
20110210 32.7958


20110211 34.23365

20110214 37.53806

20110215 40.75786

20110216 43.77328

20110217 47.36712

20110218 50.57693

20110221 52.17321

20110222 52.59504

20110223 52.23759

20110224 52.12646

20110225 52.30561

20110228 50.78321

20110301 49.95083

20110302 48.75886

20110303 48.7545

20110304 48.60954

20110307 48.91933

20110308 50.65648

20110309 53.18327

20110310 55.83762

20110311 58.13648

20110314 61.86496

20110315 65.04965

20110316 68.23689

20110317 71.06565

20110318 74.00252

20110321 78.1513

20110322 81.3552

20110323 84.10808

20110324 85.52601

20110325 86.05031

20110328 84.2088

20110329 80.85115

20110330 77.50088

20110331 74.00951

20110401 71.06763

20110404 69.29059

20110405 68.73553

20110406 68.67549

I am long DX March futures.  It found support at it's low 2/9 which should hold.  According to my count the 2/9 low is wave iv bottom.