In the S&P EWI calls a diagonal marking the final Micro 5 up. The lines do not converge and thus I count it as part of an irregular flat which is wave iv.
Nasdaq completed a 5 up which, IF it does not extend, marks the final wave of the long ABC from last March.
I expect it to extend. However, if DJI breaks critical support then I'll know that the counts are completed because they vary at Minute degree. The first warning shot will be the Composite breaking 2775.
DJI critical support M/A starts tomorrow morning at 12,155 with a break level of 11,989. I do not expect this M/A to be broken until late March but if it is then it's time to take up shorts.
The bond market made a significant bottom today and I'm long 4% TLT. However, if stocks do rally from here then I expect new low to old support at 87.35. Bonds have gotten hammered and I believe a multi-month rally is in progress. TLT and bond futures have made a 3 up and another high will confirm that the bottom is in.
The forward sentiment gauge for bonds is positive from here on. Readings over +3 are very high for the bond gauge and so I expect the rally to last well into April.
I laughed out loud when I read your first sentence. How many times have they said "the top is in"? Eventually there will be a top. It will be interesting to see whether they will claim to have "called the top" when they have called so many tops along the way. Seems that with I1 rising and POMO pomo-ing, odds are very much against EWI's call panning out.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the update on bonds.
What's your current thinking re the dollar? Where do you expect to see it a month from now, 3 months from now?