Silver is rallying with stocks but it's move may be already over. In any event a 90-minute close beneath 18.05 will be my short signal.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
4/14 Daily Commentary
I1 is advancing into 4/29. Technical and cyclical forces may terminate this rally prematurely. The only way I can deal with entering short in the face of advancing I1 is to enter on a break of critical support, which is currently below 10,900. Nasdaq Comp 2540 is the wave 1 low off of the 2007 top. 2549 is the wave 4 high in the same impulsive wave. This is my target range. A technical composite sell signal (-22) and Nasdaq in this range will cause me to shift to a shorter M/A support break for my entry point. I would not like shorting in the face of advancing I1 but 4/15 through 5/20 has a complex of atmospheric forecasts that are outside of the I1 but have good track records for a declining speculative sentiment.
Silver is rallying with stocks but it's move may be already over. In any event a 90-minute close beneath 18.05 will be my short signal.
Silver is rallying with stocks but it's move may be already over. In any event a 90-minute close beneath 18.05 will be my short signal.
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Steve
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the S&P 600 small cap index and noticed that it is only about 15 points from reaching 100% retracement from its lows of 08 and four peeks that it hit in the last 10 years. Is this a bubble or what. No way have small companys earning come back to those levels already, have they?
Jack,
ReplyDeleteSmall-caps having been tearing up the joint. I'll be including them in my shortsale hit list, TWM and MZZ. Conventional wisdom includes small-caps in the "smart investor" handbook at all of the retail shops. Not only are they outrageously over-valued but they will not be able to cope well with the socialist healthcare, tax, and record-keeping requirements.
Steve - I am also thinking that Emerging Markets are quite "over-heated". They have been one of the best performing sectors since March '09, so I think they will be one of the hardest to fall when the tables turn. Your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteEmerging markets will drop like rocks. More volatility, more reward. Exports around the world will decline as the financial world implodes. Sounds like raving, I know. Sorry.
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