Tuesday, April 27, 2010

4/27 Daily Commentary

The top is in.  DJI found support at 11,074 at the old low.
However, on the way down it broke 11,015 which is a sell signal.   Likewise, S&P futures had an hourly close lower than 1185.50.  So now we have confirmation.  Holding open the potential for a completed 5-wave to morph into an extended 5th is no longer an option.  The completed 5-wave is THE completed XYZ from the 3/9/2009 low.
I await a rally back to resistance in order to begin the shorting process.  How can we rally here?  I1 still has not peaked and I1 means that the market finds support at support levels.  This is the final support level.  My first shorts go on at DJI 11,110 or 10,957 (low - .15%) whichever comes first. 
The DJI short-term wave count looks like 1 more low to complete the 1st 5-wave downleg.  Then the bounce.  The SPX counts complete and ready to bounce.

Hopefully it takes it's time so that the I1 runs out, but the market appears to be on a serious downleg.

OK, worst chart first, the SPX which traded below support (but only by .17%):
Next, the Nasdaq Composite:
Now the DJI:
The following wave count indicates one more low to complete the 5-wave downleg:

The market is absolutely famous for tripping lows/highs by a few points, then turning around.  My approach is to distance my action point by .15% past DJI lows/highs.

No comments:

Post a Comment