Friday, April 30, 2010

4/30 Daily Commentary

It was a good day.  Recap:  I1 peaked yesterday and is down through 5/10-5/11.  Went into the day 20% short stocks and 20% long bonds.  Bought another 5% QID at 15.45, sold that at 15.93 and 5% SDS at 29.80.  Sold 10% TLT at 92.15.
Currently 15% short SDS and 10% TLT.
Reduced exposure because I believe that the stock market completed a 5-wave from the top and a rally is due.


DJI, SPX, and Nasdaq Composite are setting up a head-and-shoulders
All of the above are the reasons for my lightening up near the close.
a)  A completed 5-wave from the high implies a tradeable bounce
b) The H&S neckline is not far from today's close (10, 970 in DJI). 
c) DJI closed at 11,004 for round-number support. 
d) I don't like going into weekends with big positions.
Is there anything more than a bounce ahead Monday?.  Doubt it.  I1 is down and all of the moving averages I care about are above the market or very far below it. 
Psychologically, have the market down sharply and close on it's lows ahead of a weekend scares people.  So, a 100-point rally would make people kick themselves because they sold on scary day and they will buy on relief day.  Let it be so! 
:Here is the DJI H&S:

2 comments:

  1. Steve
    For someone who does not move in and out of the market as much as you do would you add to your shorts and stay short now until 6/8 bottom? I am shorting US small caps using a ETF.

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  2. Jack,
    I am waiting for a pop upward on Monday. I'll post with the details pre-open. The beginning of a bear market is a topping out filled with buying on dips. I hope that this offers an additional opportunity to sell near SPX 1200.

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