Friday, April 16, 2010

4/16 10:00

First-level support is at SPX 1208.40 with support break at 1201.60:

This would not cause me to short at this time.  After 4/22 this level of support break will trigger me to start shorting.
What would cause me to begin shorting now is a break of critical support at DJI 10930:

This level will be steadily advancing as the top builds up to 4/29 (hopefully).
It appears I will be short silver before I short stocks.  Silver needs a 90-minute close below 18.15:
The I1 top 4/29 is the last stop before 5 years of low I1 values and is the event I have been awaiting.  The first leg down will be met with retail buying and professional selling.  The talking heads, brokers, and Certifiable Financial Analysts will convince retail investors to buy even as the market plunges.  Investors Intelligence bullish percentage of 75% is at a nose-bleed but market typically goes up a couple of weeks past the peak.  The vast bulk of newsletters are now reciting mantra.

No comments:

Post a Comment