4/15 Daily Commentary

Investor's Intelligence bull % hit 75% last week.  I run a 5-week M/A and a sell signal registers at 68%, which factors into the technical composite (one indicator of many).  Currently it is at 65.2% but a reading over 70% this week will trigger it, or 2 weeks over 67%.  Since we are 10 market days from 4/29 this fits into the timeframe.
Nasdaq Comp closed at 2516 today, with my target range built on wave 1, wave 4 levels of the 2007-2009 decline being 2539-2550.  Getting into this range and the SPX falling beneath the 15-minute, 54-unit M/A by more than .56% will generate a first-level short (10% of capital).  Until then I am content to stay on the sidelines earning .2% on my money (thanks Uncle Ben, or should I say Uncle Tom?)
Starting tomorrow any decline below DJI 5-minute, 380-unit M/A - 1.2% would also cause a short.  While I don't expect this to happen for at least a week with an advancing I1, last night's commentary laid out a non-I1 factor that comes into play starting tomorrow that has a good record forecasting declines.  This is why I place 50-50 odds on the market holding up through the I1 peak 4/29.

In the interim silver looks interesting and would also indicate the reversal of liquidity inflows should price register a sell signal.  For me this involves a 90-minute close below it's 90-minute, 110-unit M/A -.7%.  Currently this is 18.13. 

The dollar will confirm resumption of it's bull market with a 90-minute close above 81.  This would undoubtably coincide with a silver sell signal.