Sunday, August 1, 2010

8/1 220-day M/A

The 220-day moving average I find very useful in determining where we are in the primary trend.  The uses of the 220-day are different for the SPX than for the DJI.  I include charts of the SPX going back to 1972 that demonstrate that this can be used with a 4% filter to detect primary trend changes.  So, there are numerous examples of violations of the 220-day but very few exceeding 4% and those are almost always primary trend changes.  Where we are now is with the 220-day at SP cash 1110.  This is resistance in itself.  The primary trend is downward with the July 5 low breaking the M/A by over 7%. The primary trend will not change until the SPX exceeds 1154.  This is highly unlikely.





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