The 5-wave up from Friday's low in the futures ended at 1111.50 4:20am ET. When the 10am manufacturing data came out the market extended to 1124 before closing at 1121.50. The orthodox high was 1123.50 at 2:40pm. The Fib retracement levels are marked on the chart. Piercing the 10,594 level DJI destroyed the EWI count marking it as Minute2. Minute2 is several hundred points higher. The count is firm as far as the 5-wave off of Friday's low. The market spent the afternoon churning near the orthodox high. Sessions with news events tend to have 1-day trends unless the news is world-changing. The manufacturing data is far from that, a little better than expectation, that is all. So, tonight should see the pullback.
The SP futures stopped at the 150-day M/A. This should help to throw back prices.
I1 is rising through next week so I don't want to be out of this market for long. The rally from Sunday evening produced an hourly stochastic that stayed above 90 for 16 hours. Whenever the stochastic stays nailed to the wall for more than 8 hours a pullback follows. That's what I'm counting on.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteIs it possible that the minor 1 low happened on 7/1 at 1010.91 and we are still in minor 2?
If you disregard the "flash crash" low as a sort of anomaly that Elliot never planned for then the count starts to clear up.
In my eyes that would put us in a double zigzag from the 1010.91 low with us being in wave Y at the moment. That projection would put the top in at the 1040-1050 range with which you also are thinking the rally should stop.
Also, the timing on this rally would fall into fibonacci proportions as a .618 ratio in terms of days in the decline would call for 29 rally days (falling on 8/12, a day before I1 peaks). Thanks.
K
OK, K.
ReplyDeleteI just put out my updated count, given that 10,594 fell (as expected). My current count puts us on track with the I1. With Minuette3 complete today, that leaves 9 trading days to complete Minuette4 and Minuette5. Figure 2 days for 4 and 6 days for 5 and we are 1 day early. Unfortunately, I can't ignore the flash crash, as there was no error involved. It was real trading, goosed by HFT, but real nonetheless. These counts are probabilities and the market will tell us what the actual count is after the fact. I1 gives me an up on sorting out the probabilities, but there are multiples anyway.
It sounds like you use Fibonacci a lot. Please keep posting as there so many ways to miss a trick.
Thanks.
Steve & Jack,
ReplyDeleteI assume Steve you saw my bullish thesis, but I wasn't sure if Jack did since I posted it on the 7/31 Weekly Commentary. It sure looks decent after one day lol.
Charles
Sure does, Charles. Laugh right back.
ReplyDelete