Tuesday, August 3, 2010
8/3 pre-open
As per the Updated Wave Count posting last night I am waiting for a 4th wave to complete. If it is a zig-zag then the 38.1% will catch it. The odds favor a rectangle so I'll assume that it will chew up the clock. If so, then I'll use the 30-minute M/A to catch the tail end and re-enter long. EWI says that the rally is done and down, down, down dead ahead. I1 thinks otherwise. Watch the blue line..........
If the 4th wave is not a rectangle then the 60-minute M/A and/or 38.1% will apply.
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Hello Steve,
ReplyDeleteJust discovered your blog yesterday evening--lucky me! Your work is fascinating and seems amazingly accurate. I'm curious about how you have come up with the different moving averages that you use. (I am watching the blue line :-)
Also curious about the I1, but I'm sure that is proprietary!
That you for sharing your work with us!
I screw up, just like everybody else. I use the I1 to keep me in the right direction and very conservative money management (and stops) to keep from being hurt when I trade the wrong probabilities. The M/As were trial and error over 30 years. I'm an old-timer.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the blog.
The move up from the July low to the DOW 10400 high looks too large to be a wave 1 relatively to what's transpired since then. It's also larger in price than what you are counting as wave 3 (which is allowed, but is unusual).
ReplyDeleteSo could the wave you are counting as wave 1 actually be a wave A? Wave B would have followed and bottomed at 10000 and now it's possible wave C completed yesterday. Of course that leaves us with a completed correction and another 8 or 9 trading days left where your I1 is still strong...
So maybe a more complex correction, double zigzag maybe?
Yet another possibility is that the first move up from the July low was indeed a wave A and now we are in a wave C that began from the 10000 low on July 20. However, this C wave is unfolding as an Ending Diagonal (ED) and we have just completed wave 1 of that ED. That would give the market time to complete waves 2 thru 5 of that ED by your 8/13 turn date.
One last possibility: Could your I1 have missed the turn date, and EWI's count is corrent (not likely, I know, but maybe possible :-)?
Pima,
ReplyDeleteI'll address this after the close. Too much to focus on the moment....