The stock market has invalidated my count, that being Minuette3 in progress, awaiting 4 and 5. It is not zigzag in my book because at least 1 of the supposed impulse waves is a 3. It has not invalidated EWI's count but it keeps making marginal new highs. Charles pointed out a possible alternative, that being a diagonal triangle. Minor1 was made May25. Since then an expanded flat has been unfolding. My problem has been how to reconcile a 5-wave up for wave c Minor2 with I1. I don't grasp at diagonals but it fits better than EWI's and it offers us an earlier entry on the short side. I just grasped a diagonal on a smaller degree a little better than a week ago. This seems to be how the market wants to behave at this juncture.
Both SPX and DJI fit this on a cash basis. However, in order for the SPX to be perfect it should rally beyond 1131.23. Otherwise it is a 5th wave failure. The diagonals could all be complete at this stage
Here is SPX:
Here is SP futures:
Here is DJI:
Here is DJ futures:
The lower trendline also tracks the critical support level of the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A -1.35%, currently at
10,465 cash.
Here is the hourly M/A for SP futures which corresponds to the above DJI M/A:
.bmp)
Steve
ReplyDeleteI have my short orders in at the 10606 support brake.
Thanks Jack C
Jack,
ReplyDeleteThis is just a re-orientation period for me, looking at the market through bearish eyes. My real shorting will be done on the trendline break.
The diagonal looks likely. I agree that we need one more push up which should (if the diagonal is typical) break the upper TL, taking SPX to close to, or slightly above, 1140.
ReplyDeleteThat's where I'll put on heavier shorts, on the throwoever.
ReplyDeleteThanks Pima.