pimaCanyon said...
The move up from the July low to the DOW 10400 high looks too large to be a wave 1 relatively to what's transpired since then. It's also larger in price than what you are counting as wave 3 (which is allowed, but is unusual).
So could the wave you are counting as wave 1 actually be a wave A? Wave B would have followed and bottomed at 10000 and now it's possible wave C completed yesterday. Of course that leaves us with a completed correction and another 8 or 9 trading days left where your I1 is still strong...
So maybe a more complex correction, double zigzag maybe?
Yet another possibility is that the first move up from the July low was indeed a wave A and now we are in a wave C that began from the 10000 low on July 20. However, this C wave is unfolding as an Ending Diagonal (ED) and we have just completed wave 1 of that ED. That would give the market time to complete waves 2 thru 5 of that ED by your 8/13 turn date.
One last possibility: Could your I1 have missed the turn date, and EWI's count is corrent (not likely, I know, but maybe possible :-)?
My response is that I believe that the rally is finishing early. There are other indications that the market is living on borrowed time from August 1 on. I now believe that EWI's count is correct. Last night at DJ futures 10659 I held myself back from putting on a sell order. It is against my trading rules to short in a rising I1. However, the day before jobs report I look to put on a position based on a tendency that the market trends all day after 10am. The claims number is the first step in the discounting process for the jobs report tomorrow.
I will be short long before the SP trend is broken:
thanks for commenting on my post, Steve. So just to be clear, it looks like you're saying that you believe we have topped here, a few days earlier than I1 was suggesting, right?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the heads up!
Yes. I have been expecting this top to come in early for weeks now.
ReplyDelete