Friday, September 24, 2010

9/24 2:10

My feelings have nothing to do with my decisions.  I have a job to do, to let I1 work.  85% of my SDS has been purchased under 30, even allowing for trading in and out over the past week, so whatever happens I don't have too bad a worse case.  I've kept my futures exposure minimal, waiting for the crack through critical support.  Even so I added SP futures 1% at 1126 and DJ futures at 10,785 today.  These are trading positions, not core, until critical support is taken out. 
Knowing what my job is keeps me from getting emotional.  The market has double-topped.  It does this when the trend is not quite ready to shift from up to down.  That is what the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A is for.  I've posted that this M/A is normally not cracked without 2-3 failed attempts.  So far we have had 2.  The rallies from these failures in the past tend to be sharp because in my thinking this M/A is a potent portent and a lot of money is committed on trend tests.  The latest rally has reset our game clock concerning the 30-minute M/A.  Now I have to reduce my exposure commensurate with the I1 turn date level, that is down to 10% SDS and 1% short futures.  I'll accomplish this either on a decline from here (most probable outcome) or being stopped out. 
Here again is a chart of critical support M/A:

Assuming DJI declines immediately it will not cross under 10,740 which means currently this support break will occur at 10,600 and move up until the M/A is crossed.
The 30-minute M/A SP futures is currently 1128 and will be broken on a 30-minute close .5% lower.



  2. What conditions would cause you to abandon your master, so to speak? That is, what developments (however seemingly impossible) would result in you setting aside I1 as your primary determinant of decision-making?

  3. For those of us who are new to your blog, can you give us a history of your I1?
    You post comments about following it, and letting it do it's job, but many of us aren't familiar with it.
    It has been my experience that all indicators are flawed in some way. What is the success ration of the I1?

  4. Hi Steve,

    You wrote "Now I have to reduce my exposure commensurate with the I1 turn date level, that is down to 10% SDS and 1% short futures."

    What I1 turn date, the one at the end of next week? So does that mean you have until then to reduce your exposure to those levels?