DJI came down to critical support 10,816 at the same time as SPX 15-minute was meeting it's middle-layer support. Having both M/A's meeting at the same point in time convinced me to lighten up a little.
Market at that point was finishing a 3-wave down. Sold 8% SDS 29.54. It rallied a bit then went lower making a 5 down.
In the futures market I put in an order covering SP short at 1136. However, DJI was hitting 10,800 at the same time so I covered at 1136.25.
Here is current wave count according to XMI.
SP futures registered their low near the 125-hour M/A but, as stated above, DJI was hitting 10,800 at the same time. I got 1136.25 cover.
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DJI crossing it's 5-minute, 380-unit EMA, this critical support will not be broken until 10,655. If the market can hit this number then I'll hold a portion of the short position through the I1 uptick through 10/7-10/8. Otherwise I'll go flat expecting further upside in the stock market.
I am now 8% EUO, the short Euro. I'll go to a max of 12% on Euro weakness from here. The dollar should be basing here:
Steve in your opinion do we close the year out around here or higher...Are you looking for spx 1200 or more by E O Y...THANKS Jimmy
ReplyDeleteJimmy
ReplyDeleteLow 11/15 much lower than here. After 12/15 get a big rally into March.
Steve, what is the technical composite reading today? Is it in sell territory? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSince I1 continued down while the market has been going up do you feel that it needs to be recalibrated in terms of government interventions like QE, etc? I'm assuming I1 intended for a "free market", unlike the one we have today. I appreciate all your hard work and value your opinions.
ReplyDeleteTechnical composite last night was -16, in minor sell but not a betting sell of -20.
ReplyDeleteThe SPX close 9/13 was 1121.90. Compare that with the close today and compute %. I'll bet it is less than 2%. No an answer you may want to hear but I can imagine a market much higher if sentiment had not been muted during this period. Basel itself was a green light for the risk psychology. That's all this is risk vs. risk avoidance. I1 was derived from a correlation machine. This cycle would not alter the correlation results in any meaningful way and if it was re-jiggered it may bite me in the behind in future cycles.
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