Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/28 2:55

Looks like sustained profit-taking.
3rd time hitting support and still the diving board has some spring left in it.  As to whether being POMO day had an influence on the stock market here are my thoughts. Fed NY conducts POMO.  The treasuries are bought in the AM and the funds are instaneously available.  Yet the effect supposedly only shows up in the last 45 minutes of the session.  Huh?  I've seen a pattern where for a number of days running the market rallied from 2:00 to 3:15, not the final 45 minutes.  So the effect is not as obvious as conspiracy theorists would have us believe.  Sustained rallies produce lop-sided effects, naturally.
If it were the FRNY that bought stocks associated with the POMO op then it would have to appear on their balance sheet if held past closing.  Why would they need POMO?  The Fed is buying treasuries so the cash flow is reversed if they want to use the receipts for market manipulation.  FRNY or any Fed bank can step into markets whenever they want as long as it is a day trade operation using magic checks.  POMO is counter-intuitive for Fed manipulation.  GS has plenty of capital to undertake a rig whenever they want.  POMO day is like payday for construction workers or end of month for Social Security.  The money flows in and is spent on Cheetos and other crap.  With money splashing around the system some of it goes into equities.  I believe that this is now an ingrained expectation on the part of traders that is self-fulfilling and GS and a lot of other traders may be trading ahead of it.  Remember how the money supply reports used to influence the stock market?

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