Friday, June 10, 2011
6/10 Weekly Commentary
Looking at the short-term timing chart from the 11:05 posting I stated that an 8-day lead fits the data best. If so, then today or Monday is bottom day.
The background of the market decline is definitely "risk-off" as indicated by the iboxx high yield index. This has reached it's 4/15 low, which should provide support. It broke it's 175-day M/A decisively and I expect a rally to re-test this M/A.
The dollar and silver played their parts. The dollar almost reached 75 today and I consider that the limit of the initial move.
I realize that human nature is to look for a killing, but I have enough evidence to justify taking profits and waiting for a good bounce. We have had 6 consecutive weeks of decline with only 1 decent bounce (which I took full advantage of). I would expect Nasdaq to come down to it's 200-day and rally (futures are only 5 points away).
I now hold 1% SOPIX and 1% UCPIX.