End-of-quarter week. In a bull or trendless market this would add a bullish bias. Short-term timing component indicates Wednesday as peak day. Trend is then down until late August. I hold 1% UCPIX and 2% EUO.
Overnight trading saw SP futures test last week's lows before rallying. SP and ND futures are testing their 200-day M/As. It's looking like Wednesday will only see a rally to the top of the trading range. If the past 2 weeks are only a rectangle then this will have implications for a wave count. The only clear count of the decline since March has been Nasdaq, with the Composite counting (iv) in progress. A rectangle would make be appropriate for this count and, when complete, make this count almost a certainty. My tactics are to go short at top-of-range sometime Wednesday.
Silver traded down with stock overnight and has not rallied back with them. I'm reluctant to short silver until Wednesday, hoping it will recover back to the daily M/A or higher and give me a short point for the "risk-off" trade.