Thursday, June 16, 2011

6/16 Daily Commentary

Blue chips were up smartly, Nasdaq Comp closed .3% lower but completed a 5 down from the May high and slightly exceeded the March low.  So 1 possibility is that it completed an irregular top 3-3-5. I think this 5 down will yield to a correction upward as long as July 8 and then get slammed in a 3rd down. 
I'm holding no positions at the moment.  I don't intend to go long, but will await the next shorting opportunity.  The daily technical composite backed off from +24 to +22. 
Reconstructing the 8-day lead in the short-term timing component of I1, the rally 2 days ago was the beginning of this component's predicted rally phase (hash mark on left). 
The above price series is the SPX.  The DJI and Russell traded sideways from that point through today.
So, the rally looks to have begun.  SP futures traded up to their 30-minute M/A after hours.  Breaking through by more than .5% on a 30-minute close will confirm the move up.
Dollar, silver, etc. all depend on whether this rally gathers steam or not.

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