Monday, June 13, 2011

6/13 Daily Commentary

Crude fell sharply Friday and today, 2.6% and 2% respectively.  Crude weakness also spread to silver, another spec darling.  Unlike Friday, however, falling commodities today could not take the stock market lower.  This bouyancy should develop into a mini-rally over the next several days. 
In environments like this I work on other projects and don't follow the blips.  I won't go long and indeed carry 1% SOPIX and 1% UCPIX.  Sometimes it pays not to care, as detachment prevents trading errors.
Nasdaq Comp and 100 fell and recovered from their 200-day M/As.  NDX, SPX, and DJI closed higher.

The rally this morning carried to the SP 30-minute M/A as expected.  I did not short at that point. 

The short-term timing component operates selling peaks, but if the peak is > 10.5 then the sell occurs on the decline below 10.5.  It buys bottoms, but if the bottom < 2 then the buy occurs on the advance above 2.  The 8-day lead indicates that today was the last day of weakness allowable prior to the start of the rally mode.  

The 11:15 post included the weekly technical composite which is in sell mode as well as the 30-day I1. So the backdrop is for continued weakness after an expected bounce.

I'm happy with my stock market and precious metals forward sentiment work, reasonably content with the bonds and dollar, and still in development for the other markets, including crude.  Thus, more sophisticated code needs to be developed to master the intricacies of how these markets react environmentally.  One size does not fit all.  I'm building out my computing environment and writing code to more completely correlate the markets that do not meet my criteria for accuracy.  My posting will be less frequent until the next shorting window opens and/or the hardware/software environment meets my needs for a broader scope of analysis.


  1. Steve, great discipline on not buying longs despite you expecting a rally. Kudos!

  2. Thanks for making the effort to share your research with the rest of us. I don't know whether your blog always gets the appreciation it deserves, but I find it very useful.