6/28 Daily Commentary

Today fulfilled the breakout scenario for Nasdaq.  Tomorrow should run some more.  Since the advent of an 8-day lead in the short-term timing component of I1 my focus has been on using this series instead of I1 itself, since the lead is manifested primarily from this component and it measures so precisely.  I've augmented this with my daily technical composite which has a strong history of either interrupting a downtrend for several days on a surge beyond +16 or going full circle to neutral +4.  Since I1 data indicated that the congestion and rally was going to last for 2 weeks, my working assumption is that the technical composite was going to point out the end of the rally.   Here's how I'm putting these together.
First, the short-term timing component declines below 10.5 on Thursday.  I've included a listing of this series since Jan. 1 later in this post.  Ordinarily this would pinpoint Wednesday at the close as the optimal time to short.

However, the daily technical composite remained at +14 today in spite of the rally.  Since all of the technical series within the composite are built around thresholds and are smoothed, very often they signal together after strong moves.  I assume that this will be the case this time.  At +14 it requires a 10 point drop to +4 which is a lot to ask for in a single day (tomorrow).  Therefore I'm expecting carry-over into Thursday morning.

Here is the short-term timing component data with high/low/close of SP futures:
20110103, 3.5705, 127200, 125590, 126530


20110104, 2.9461, 126990, 125830, 126530

20110105, 0.9860, 127350, 125580, 127180

20110106, 0.0757, 127690, 126650, 127020

20110107, 1.2220, 127380, 125780, 126750

20110110, 2.0659, 126800, 125800, 126550

20110111, 3.1096, 127360, 126420, 127040

20110112, 3.9080, 128420, 126910, 128340

20110113, 5.6046, 128450, 127650, 128130

20110114, 6.6133, 129080, 127430, 128940

20110118, 10.9846, 129500, 128300, 129470

20110119, 11.4699, 129620, 127520, 127850

20110120, 11.8671, 128130, 126770, 127620

20110121, 11.6924, 128800, 127330, 127970

20110124, 10.6822, 128950, 127800, 128850

20110125, 11.3829, 129170, 127750, 128760

20110126, 9.0250, 129630, 128620, 129360

20110127, 7.8168, 129800, 128930, 129580

20110128, 7.8508, 129940, 127000, 127150

20110131, 3.0017, 128360, 126260, 128240

20110201, 4.8176, 130580, 128140, 130270

20110202, 2.4054, 130530, 129790, 130000

20110203, 2.0887, 130580, 129180, 130330

20110204, 3.7916, 130860, 129820, 130720

20110207, 5.4868, 132000, 130610, 131580

20110208, 5.6099, 132230, 131330, 132170

20110209, 6.0918, 132190, 131200, 131920

20110210, 7.4621, 132020, 130880, 131880

20110211, 8.7912, 132850, 131010, 132730

20110214, 14.5707, 133100, 132480, 132770

20110215, 15.3959, 132920, 132230, 132630

20110216, 14.6709, 133600, 132580, 133300

20110217, 16.4807, 133990, 132850, 133780

20110218, 15.8942, 134280, 133520, 134240

20110222, 11.2551, 134240, 131050, 131440

20110223, 9.2196, 132050, 129800, 130550

20110224, 8.7784, 131070, 129300, 130270

20110225, 7.8023, 131980, 130170, 131880

20110228, 0.9379, 132900, 131300, 132610

20110301, 0.1509, 133620, 130050, 130110

20110302, -0.4330, 131350, 129630, 130580

20110303, 0.9696, 133170, 130490, 132970

20110304, 3.0494, 133440, 131150, 132030

20110307, 6.0428, 132720, 130300, 130910

20110308, 8.9701, 132550, 130620, 132010

20110309, 9.1635, 132490, 131170, 131540

20110310, 10.6274, 131710, 129200, 129430

20110311, 10.5974, 130850, 129000, 130610

20110314, 13.9640, 130040, 128130, 129050

20110315, 13.9098, 129310, 125120, 127530

20110316, 13.9924, 128320, 124380, 125390

20110317, 15.2966, 127420, 124150, 126880

20110318, 16.7645, 128750, 126190, 127420

20110321, 19.0837, 129600, 127500, 129310

20110322, 17.8128, 129650, 128770, 128830

20110323, 14.9453, 129550, 127930, 129210

20110324, 11.1106, 130670, 128920, 130520

20110325, 8.9372, 131450, 130420, 131000

20110328, 1.3844, 131500, 130180, 130220

20110329, 1.3347, 131700, 130050, 131650

20110330, -0.3598, 132750, 131480, 132390

20110331, -0.6947, 132570, 132070, 132100

20110401, 0.6364, 133370, 132080, 132770

20110404, 5.4862, 133250, 132460, 132920

20110405, 6.4878, 133400, 132310, 132670

20110406, 7.5741, 133640, 132620, 132890

20110407, 8.4137, 133500, 132250, 132850

20110408, 11.1042, 133570, 131850, 132380

20110411, 14.7365, 132980, 131700, 131960

20110412, 14.9346, 132050, 130550, 130830

20110413, 13.2708, 131870, 130530, 130870

20110414, 11.7776, 131330, 129850, 131020

20110415, 12.9812, 131930, 130580, 131870

20110418, 12.2120, 131850, 129050, 130110

20110419, 10.2732, 131100, 129410, 130860

20110420, 7.0734, 133020, 130890, 132830

20110421, 8.0785, 133770, 132840, 133100

20110425, 1.6065, 133540, 132730, 133080

20110426, 3.1030, 134580, 132830, 134090

20110427, 2.9586, 135400, 134010, 135100

20110428, 2.8089, 135820, 134700, 135490

20110429, 3.2044, 136370, 135280, 135970

20110502, 7.1929, 137280, 135470, 135770

20110503, 7.2395, 135830, 134600, 135210

20110504, 8.9979, 135500, 133780, 134300

20110505, 10.1734, 134870, 132550, 133500

20110506, 12.1398, 135130, 133200, 133460

20110509, 13.6163, 134650, 133440, 134270

20110510, 12.9772, 135630, 133920, 135380

20110511, 13.4434, 135840, 133320, 133870

20110512, 13.0344, 134850, 132900, 134750

20110513, 12.7804, 135250, 133080, 133400

20110516, 7.6321, 134100, 132490, 132560

20110517, 6.8593, 133190, 131620, 132540

20110518, 5.7337, 134020, 132470, 133860

20110519, 2.9878, 134530, 133460, 134170

20110520, 1.6239, 134400, 132700, 132780

20110523, 1.9049, 132670, 131090, 131520

20110524, 3.4322, 132220, 131200, 131360

20110525, 4.0632, 132420, 130250, 131660

20110526, 4.4328, 132730, 131270, 132650

20110527, 4.5943, 133350, 132450, 132990

20110531, 10.4603, 134570, 132860, 134390

20110601, 11.0917, 134770, 131130, 131210

20110602, 13.2322, 131750, 130450, 131240

20110603, 11.9935, 131330, 129460, 129630

20110606, 13.9457, 129900, 128350, 128500

20110607, 13.2273, 129520, 128270, 128480

20110608, 11.7586, 128740, 127630, 127700

20110609, 11.3189, 129370, 127550, 128740

20110610, 11.7079, 128380, 126750, 126920

20110613, 9.5956, 127650, 126550, 127160

20110614, 5.8582, 128690, 126520, 128450

20110615, 3.9927, 128380, 125580, 125990

20110616, 0.0524, 126900, 125250, 126350

20110617, -0.2868, 127730, 125860, 126600

20110620, -0.9603, 127520, 125620, 127380

20110621, 0.3894, 129250, 127170, 128790

20110622, -0.2196, 129330, 127950, 127980

20110623, 0.6621, 128080, 125700, 127700

20110624, 2.6651, 128600, 126130, 126390

20110627, 8.9891, 128000, 125540, 127630

20110628, 9.3093, 129500, 127160, 129450
 
Silver and gold rallied today but not proportionally to the stock indexes.  Silver futures at 34.60 and gold at 1520 remain my action points for shorting.  They may not make these levels. Here is PM1:
 

 
 
 
With the extended formatting capabilities of the newsletter in PDF format I will daily carry the following series' raw data for 30 days forward:
I1
Short-term timing component 
PM1 Silver/gold sentiment gauge 
US1 Long bond sentiment gauge 
If markets are compelling I'll include the dollar gauge and crude.
All gauge charts weekly and some daily/intraday depending on the trade.
 
So the switch to PDF will really yield a lot more usable information without a lot of increase work on my part.  The blogger is a crude tool.
 
As part of my trading rules I took a 1% position in DXD when the DJI was 5 points away from breaking the upper envelope of the critical M/A.  This was broken today and 4 tick loss was taken.  This is a routine trade with tiny risk and sometimes surprising payoffs.  However, the efficacy of the critical M/A and the SP futures 30-minute M/A is reduced in extended trading ranges.