Wednesday, June 15, 2011

6/15 Daily Commentary

Russell did not come close to Monday's low.  SPX, NDX, and DJI made 5 downs to complete a 3 down (or it will extend).  Nasdaq Comp tested Monday's low and closed above it.  It also is testing it's 200-day M/A.  This M/A has a 1.4% envelope.
I'm posting the Daily Technical Composite history from 1983 on.  Today's reading of +24 indicates rally iminent.  There was only 1 instance in it's history when the market did not stop and rally when the composite got above +16 to +24, that being 1987.


  1. Steve,
    Interesting that you mentioned 1987. Some smart folks are making that parallel (Jeff Cooper among others). Very, eerily similar. Everyone thinks the 200 day MA will hold but in 1987 it failed in one massive plunge. LTCM was all about overleverage and computer trading all one way at the same time...sound familiar? The October 1987 experience was fell fairly sharply after getting one of those DeMark monthly signals at the end of Sept like we had at end of May. The wave structures look similar. The crash was the Monday after options expiration just like Friday will be. I would be on high alert. I am thinking of not being long anything that doesnt have a zero basis and maybe a spec short just to cover my rear. What are your thoughts?

  2. I cant' see the tech composite?

  3. Follow the link in the Daily. The last chart contains yesterday's value.