what's your target for the next wave up (5th wave of move up from yesterday morning's low)?
If this next wave is the same size as first wave (which was approx. 14 SPX points), then we would expect approx. 1090 (14 points + 4th wave low of 1076).
'course, we don't yet know what the 4th wave low will be. Also, sometimes the 5th wave is .62 X the length of the first, so that could give a target of 1084 - 1085.
This is how I see it. Since 4/26 we have completed two major 5 waves down. In between the first 5 wave that ended on 7/2 we had an ABC ending on 7/27 back up to the top of the 4th wave. This was the start of the second 5 wave down that ended 8/24. We are now in the second ABC and in the SML index it’s only five points from reaching the end of the C wave to reach the top of the 4th wave on 8/18 of the second 5th wave. I’d say in the DJI (10350 to 10500 max) and SPX (1094 to 1100max) this C wave is just about done also. It’s harder to see in the DJIA and SPX but real clear in the SML. Wave 1 of the next five down could start as soon as tomorrow or by Friday’s unemployment numbers or could drag out till 8/12 I1 top, AINT no telling. I’m short and staying short unless this wave C takes out the top of the 8/18 4th wave top. Steve, does my analysis make sense?
From the options action expiring this friday, we should close at 107 on SPY. Next week it appears to be 110. We may get a higher 5 open tomorrow (1085 SPX?) on a bad jobless claims, then a sell down to A, closing with a stick-up B and grind down to C on Friday. Don't do EW as well. Can you try?
what's your target for the next wave up (5th wave of move up from yesterday morning's low)?
ReplyDeleteIf this next wave is the same size as first wave (which was approx. 14 SPX points), then we would expect approx. 1090 (14 points + 4th wave low of 1076).
'course, we don't yet know what the 4th wave low will be. Also, sometimes the 5th wave is .62 X the length of the first, so that could give a target of 1084 - 1085.
Looks like 4th wave ended. I look at 10,353 and I'll short somewhere around there.
ReplyDeletethanks. I may also take a small SDS position there. Good luck to both of us! :-)
ReplyDeleteSteve
ReplyDeleteThis is how I see it. Since 4/26 we have completed two major 5 waves down. In between the first 5 wave that ended on 7/2 we had an ABC ending on 7/27 back up to the top of the 4th wave. This was the start of the second 5 wave down that ended 8/24. We are now in the second ABC and in the SML index it’s only five points from reaching the end of the C wave to reach the top of the 4th wave on 8/18 of the second 5th wave. I’d say in the DJI (10350 to 10500 max) and SPX (1094 to 1100max) this C wave is just about done also. It’s harder to see in the DJIA and SPX but real clear in the SML. Wave 1 of the next five down could start as soon as tomorrow or by Friday’s unemployment numbers or could drag out till 8/12 I1 top, AINT no telling. I’m short and staying short unless this wave C takes out the top of the 8/18 4th wave top. Steve, does my analysis make sense?
Jack C
From the options action expiring this friday, we should close at 107 on SPY. Next week it appears to be 110. We may get a higher 5 open tomorrow (1085 SPX?) on a bad jobless claims, then a sell down to A, closing with a stick-up B and grind down to C on Friday. Don't do EW as well. Can you try?
ReplyDelete