We have a 5 down from the overnight high. A triangle is forming. SP futures break 30-minute M/A at 1115.75 on a 30-minute close. Low so far was 1117. The market has refused to break 30-minute M/A during the entire congestion phase. This is close to the current market and will tell me that trend has changed.
The logic is that there is further decline ahead due to the 5 down and that the decline will likely result in the 30-minute M/A being broken. I am shorting DJ futures 10,540 in anticipation of this decline.