Monday, September 20, 2010

9/20 6:15

Here is the I1 chart:

EWI posted the same wave count for DJI/SPX, that being the diagonal from July low forming a, August low b, and 5 up forming c.  They call for a completed wave c, thus Minor 2 complete as well.
My approach to wave counting looks at I1 first, then arrays the possible counts to align them.  Thus, assuming I1 is down, the count was for the rally from August low to be a c wave and stop at the prior high.  XMI is doing so, but DJI and SPX are not, so at this point XMI count is my original.  This gives me a very short stop for half of my ETFs.  If XMI makes a new high past 1180 then I sell off a portion of the SDS. Simple.
The Daily Technical Composite at -10, a sell signal.  With a declining I1 any value -8 or less gives me a reason for shorting.


  1. EWI is rarely right but this time I HOPE they are..Lets make it rain!!!

  2. I trust your count. The fact that EWI also has the same count now makes me nervous! :-)

  3. I'm already nervous. I don't ordinarily carry this much futures shorts overnight.
    This looks like the completed count, down to the rally from this afternoon's 4th wave low. Eh?

  4. Yes, it does look complete to me too. (But I have been fooled by "completed" counts before.)

    I know your I1 does not use astro, but there are major astro events occurring this week: Jup/Uranus conjunction over the weekend, Sun opposition Jup and Ur tomorrow, equinox on Wednesday, Full Moon on Thursday (at same degree of cardinal climax), Moon at apogee tomorrow, and both Uranus and Jupiter at maximum closeness to earth this afternoon/evening.

    If we don't put in a major reversal this week, I will be very surprised. (But I have been surprised before, so caveat trader!)

    Steve, I wish you big profits on your short positions, and may they move into the black soon!

  5. Why, thank you, pima. With all this astro going on maybe space aliens will come and fire on Wall Street...

  6. LOL, I'll take your space aliens and while we are at it, how about adding a couple of meteor showers.

  7. pima
    Do you grok astro well enough to assign outcomes and probabilities to these events?
    Do you subscribe to Arch Crawford? I respect his work because he is right a lot, not because I understand it.

  8. Steve,

    I have studied Eastern Astrology (a.k.a. Hindu astrology or jyotish) for many years, but have not unlocked the key to using it to determine direction of the markets. Seems that the best that many financial astrologers can do is assign probabilities for an astro event to cause a turn in the market (that is, mark a top or bottom). Arch Crawford goes one better and uses astro events and confirgurations to determine market direction, similarly to how you're using I1.

    I recently subscribed to Arch Crawford's newsletter, primarily because I recently met the guy in person! (He lives here in Tucson.) That prompted me to check out his website and found that at least for the past couple of years his forecasts have been on the money

  9. pima
    I know he's been on a roll. I apologize if I offended you with my off-hand joke.