Tuesday, September 21, 2010

9/21 12:30

I expect the market to trade in a range of 1135-1139 SP futures today.  Currently it is below the range at 1134.  1132 is my trigger to increase shorts as this indicates the market will be in a hurry to take off the rosy glasses it wore yesterday.
Yesterday the DJI ran into it's 172-week moving average.  This one sports an envelope of 2% but most touches turn on a dime.  It's 360-week M/A today is at 10,850.  Their close proximity increases their potency.






8 comments:

  1. So far the move down does not look impulsive to me. Are we dealing with yet another small 4th wave?? However, if it's a small 1st wave, it's probably too early to tell.

    Will you increase your position size even if ES hits 1132 BEFORE Fed speak? Or what about right after the announcement when the market often gyrates wildly for a few minutes to a half hour or so?

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  2. So far a 3 down. It would surprise me to get a 5 down prior to the announcement.

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  3. I hope it goes 5 down, then I'll sell on the reaction wave.

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  4. I'll put in some Hail Mary orders to sell higher.

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  5. I believe the move down today on SPX and ES can be counted as 5 down (on 5 min chart or smaller timeframe), where the 5th wave of that move just completed as an Ending Diagonal. If so, we're in for a retracement, but that retracement should not make new highs, else this count is invalid.

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  6. I'll put in another SDS buy order at 29.61.

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  7. FOMC announcements distort normal wave relationships. I suspend counting for 15 minutes thereafter and go by the count 5 minutes prior to the announcement.

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  8. good to know that, Steve. Makes sense.

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