Tuesday, September 7, 2010

9/7 Daily Commentary

I came into the day short SP futures and carrying 4% SDS.  The futures short was put on Sunday evening when a new rally high was achieved in the futures markets only which fulfilled the abc wave count (Minute 2).  Because the high was achieved overnight I am marking cash DJI chart abc complete at Friday's closing high.  See the Weekly Commentary DJI chart for detailed count.

I am marking the low today as Sub-Minuette 1 complete, even though it may sub-divide further to the downside.
The SPX just broke it's 15-minute, 54-unit M/A envelope by trading below 1091.40 in the final few minutes. 
The SP futures equivalent has yet to be broken, but will be at 1088.50.
I1 bottoms 9/10 at the close.  I must maintain flat or minimal shorts until then, although I am following the longer holding period rules because I1 peak is under 3.25 (just barely).  I'll increase shorts at the close of peak day.
I bought a short gold ETF, DZZ near the close.  The precious metals have their own sentiment index, similar to I1.  Since gold is ravenously sought after by the vast majority under the belief that government stimulus will rekindle inflation, it seems appropriate for it to double-top with it's high of 6/21 of 1254.80.  The rally from 7/28 appears as a complete abc.  These are coincidental to the peak being put in today of it's sentiment index:
Finally, the Daily Technical Composite is working off it's buy signal at +22.  Declining to +6 will neutralize it and allow further decline in the stock market. 

1 comment:

  1. I was out of it early today. Knew we were going to 1090 but had my squiggle count wrong so I got shook out by the early choppiness. Then the day job kicked in and that was that for the day.

    I track what I call 'esoteric' dates. Lots of focus on the sept8-12 period as well as very intense focus on sept 19-23. I keep trying to fit that into possible wave counts but it seems hard for some reason. The only thing that would make sense would be a 1-2 of some sort. A top on friday the 10th with a decline into friday the 17th - but that's opex.

    well, it was never meant to be easy :)
    happy trading,
    shabs

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